Traders at the Polymarket prediction market have doubled the implied odds that the Second Coming of Jesus Christ will occur by the end of the year, turning one of the platform’s strangest contracts into a better performer than bitcoin.
The market, titled “Will Jesus Return in 2026?”, was trading around 4 cents on Friday, implying a probability of about 4%. This represents an increase from a low of around 1.8% on January 3, meaning the “Yes” side has gained more than 120% in just over a month.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, has moved in the opposite direction. The largest cryptocurrency has lost 18% this year for reasons ranging from concerns that quantum computing could break its encryption to speculation about a hedge fund explosion and broader risk-averse pressure on global markets.
This price action has made even meme-like prediction contracts look resilient by comparison.
Polymarkets work like binary options. A “Yes” stock pays $1 if the event occurs and $0 if it does not, and the trading price reflects the crowd’s implied probability.
A trader who buys “Yes” at 4 cents is effectively paying that amount for an opportunity to win $1. Someone who buys “No” at 96 cents is betting that the event will not happen and will win 4 cents if the contract resolves “No.”
If the “No” trades in the low to mid-90s for long periods, it creates the appearance of a slow and steady profit for anyone willing to put money there, even though the trade is ultimately binary and can still swing wildly.
The contract resolves to “Yes” if the Second Coming occurs before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 pm ET, and to “No” otherwise. Polymarket says the resolution will be based on a consensus from credible sources, a clause that highlights why traders are treating the market more as a novelty than a serious forecast.
The price action offers a snapshot of how prediction markets can behave as microcap tokens. With relatively limited liquidity, even small bursts of buying can significantly increase the odds, generating headline-grabbing percentage gains.
The rally also reflects Polymarket’s growing role as a real-time barometer of attention on the Internet, where everything from elections to celebrity gossip to religious prophecies can be traded on the same interface.
As such, the “Jesus trade” remains a bit of a sideshow. But in a year where Bitcoin has struggled to find stable footing, it’s also a reminder that the strangest corners of cryptocurrencies are sometimes the only ones that rise.
