The current state of the cryptocurrency market is developing almost exactly as historical patterns would suggest, according to Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures.
That is why he was skeptical of the recent overly optimistic background projections. “When people thought the bottom was going to be at $80,000 and it was just going to be a six-week bear market, that seems ridiculous to me,” Terpin said at Consensus Hong Kong 2026 on Thursday.
Predictions that bitcoin would bottom out at $60,000 and immediately resume its rise seemed premature to him. “That seems too soon too.”
While stopping short of forecasting another one-year decline, Terpin believes the market is likely facing “one more point of pain” in what he describes as a fragile environment. It suggests that Bitcoin could reach $50,000 or even $40,000 levels again before a lasting bottom forms.
The halving is fundamental to the design of bitcoin because it halves the reward miners receive for validating transactions approximately every four years, reducing the speed at which new coins are created.
This built-in supply shock reinforces bitcoin’s scarcity, a core part of its value proposition, and has historically preceded major bull markets as reducing new supply meets steady or increasing demand.
The halving mechanism slows bitcoin’s inflation rate over time, ultimately limiting the total supply to 21 million coins and reinforcing its positioning as digital gold.
“We are exactly where we should be,” Terpin argued, pointing to the well-established four-year cycle anchored around Bitcoin halving events.
One of the most reliable elements of previous cycles has been the difficult moment of the peak of the bubble and its subsequent development, he argued.
“The bull market broke out in the fourth quarter after the halving,” he notes, adding that the speculative explosion phase usually lasts between nine and 11 months. “This time it was 11 months.”
Terpin draws a close parallel with the last cycle. “The highs, the bursting of the bubble, occurred on November 10, 2021,” he says. “The lows occurred right after FTX filed for bankruptcy on November 10, 2022. Exactly one year to the day.”
Read more: Crypto asset manager Bitwise says bitcoin will break its four-year cycle in 2026
