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Pakistan sent the first batch of quality rice to Dhaka as direct trade between the nations resumed. PHOTO: ARCHIVE
ISLAMABAD:
On February 9, the Pakistan Army’s media wing issued a statement marking the conclusion of the multinational exercises. The brochure was accompanied by a series of images. However, one photograph stood out: Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir with a contingent of the Bangladesh army. It was not mere optics. It symbolized the quiet but unmistakable transformation taking place in Pakistan-Bangladesh relations.
Just two weeks earlier, the two countries resumed direct flights after a 14-year hiatus. Last year, Foreign Minister and External Affairs Minister Ishaq Dar traveled to Dhaka, the first visit by a Pakistani foreign minister in 13 years. Several high-level exchanges followed, underscoring the renewed warmth.
This evolution would have been unthinkable a few years ago. During Sheikh Hasina’s 15 years of rule, Bangladesh virtually closed the door on any meaningful rapprochement with Pakistan. The Awami League government forged exceptionally close ties with India, leading critics to argue that New Delhi, and not Dhaka, had become the main center of influence.
That calculus changed dramatically in August 2024, when Hasina was overthrown following a violent uprising led by Bangladeshi students. The change was tectonic. Many young Bangladeshis accused India of propping up an increasingly authoritarian regime and undermining democratic institutions. Their anger deepened when New Delhi provided shelter to the fleeing Hasina and continued to protect her despite repeated calls for her extradition.
Amid this reset, Bangladesh’s ties with Pakistan gained momentum. The interim government rolled back years of restrictions placed on Pakistani diplomats, eased visa restrictions and removed barriers to exports. There have been growing calls within Bangladesh for closer defense cooperation. The Bangladesh Air Force chief recently visited Islamabad, where discussions reportedly centered on a possible deal on the JF-17 fighter jet. Initiatives that once seemed politically impossible are now firmly on the table.
In this context, Thursday’s historic elections in Bangladesh had not only domestic importance but also profound geostrategic implications. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), sidelined during Hasina’s rule, swept the polls with a two-thirds majority. The previously banned Jamaat-e-Islami gained parliamentary representation for the first time in years.
Tarique Rahman, who returned from exile days before the vote, will become Bangladesh’s next prime minister. The son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and the late President Ziaur Rahman, Tarique represents a political tradition historically more open to balanced regional engagement.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quick to call Tarique Rahman to congratulate him, a first sign that New Delhi wants to retain its influence in Dhaka despite the recent turmoil.
What it means for Pakistan and the region
Under the Awami League government, Pakistan struggled to restore ties. Hasina repeatedly linked normalization to a formal apology for the events of 1971. Islamabad maintained that its leaders had already expressed regret and argued that the matter was addressed under the 1974 tripartite agreement signed by Pakistan, India and the newly formed Bangladesh.
The return of the BNP alters the equation. Historically, relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh were relatively smoother during the BNP-led governments. However, experts warn against simplistic assumptions. Tarique Rahman is unlikely to pursue an anti-India or anti-Pakistan policy. Bangladesh’s economic rise and strategic location demand a pragmatic and multi-vector foreign policy.
Still, Pakistan appears to enjoy a relative advantage at this juncture. Public sentiment in Bangladesh has changed, particularly among young people. Defense cooperation, trade, connectivity and people-to-people exchanges are expanding. If carefully fostered, these openings could institutionalize a longer-lasting partnership.
For India, the challenge will be recalibration rather than confrontation. Bangladesh remains too important, geographically, economically and strategically, for New Delhi to lose ground. India will hopefully intensify its diplomatic contacts and economic incentives to preserve what is at stake.
The emerging picture suggests not a zero-sum contest but a rebalancing. Bangladesh under Tarique Rahman is likely to diversify its partnerships, reduce over-reliance on a single power, and assert greater strategic autonomy.
For Pakistan, the opportunity is real, but so is the test. Turning symbolic gestures into sustained cooperation will require patience, sensitivity to history, and a forward-thinking agenda. If handled wisely, the image of Pakistan’s army chief alongside Bangladeshi troops may well be remembered as more than just a photo op: it could mark the beginning of a new regional alignment in South Asia.
