By Francisco Rodrigues (All times Eastern Time unless otherwise noted)
bitcoin has gained 2% in the last 24 hours, fighting its way above $68,000 after a sell-off earlier this month. That has done little to ease sentiment, as the “Fear and Greed” index remains at the “extreme fear” level for the 20th consecutive day.
André Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise, said consolidation is expected after the crash, which saw Bitcoin fall to a low of $60,000.
“Covid aside, bitcoin doesn’t typically show V-shaped recoveries after sharp capitulations,” he told CoinDesk. “The most likely case is that we continue to move from side to side.”
Still, Dragosch pointed to signs of optimism. Prediction markets now put the odds of the US Clarity Act passing in 2026 at close to 80%. He described the bill as an important catalyst for alternative tokens such as ether (ETH) and solana (SOL). Bitwise’s internal crypto asset sentiment index registered neutral, it added.
“On the macro front, bitcoin continues to exhibit significant ‘discounts’ relative to global money supply, gold, and overall macro growth prospects. Bitcoin also exhibits significant undervaluation relative to global Bitcoin ETP flows,” Dragosch said. “ETP flows are still relatively weak, but once risk appetite and flows return, this suggests we could see a significant recovery in bitcoin.”
However, caution remains. Data from CryptoQuant shows that large bitcoin holders have moved coins to Binance at record levels. These transfers often signal an intention to sell, increasing supply in spot markets and potentially weighing on prices.
Dragosch rejected concerns that Bitcoin could be a “canary in the macro coal mine,” indicating tighter liquidity and a higher risk of recession. The US yield curve and other future indicators suggest continued growth in the money supply, he said. Global liquidity is expanding at more than 10% annually, a backdrop that has not typically aligned with extended bitcoin bear markets, he added.
In fact, prediction markets have reduced the odds of a recession in the United States this year. The probability of that happening fell from more than 40% in mid-2025 to just over 20%.
However, volatility in the cryptocurrency market is likely to increase over the weekend. Later today, US core PCE index data will be released, which could provide clues about the future direction of Fed policy.
Traders are bracing for a sharp increase from previous figures. While higher inflation traditionally supports the case for scarce assets, a hawkish reaction from the Federal Reserve could push the dollar higher, putting further pressure on risk assets over the weekend. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- February 20, 8:30 am: US core PCE price index on a monthly basis for December estimated at 0.4% (previously 0.2%); YoY est. 2.9% (previous 2.8%)
- February 20, 8:30 am: US GDP growth rate Anticipated quarterly rate for estimated fourth quarter 3. (Previous 4.4%)
- February 20, 9:45 am: US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February estimated at 52.6 (previously 52.4).
- February 20, 10 a.m.: Final US Michigan Consumer Confidence for February estimate 57.3 (previous 56.4)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Aavegotchi DAO is voting to consolidate assets from depleted wallets into the Liquidity wallet to simplify operations. Voting ends on February 22.
- Fluid DAO is voting to withdraw 1 million GHO and 1 million FLUID from the treasury to Team Multisig to fund JupLend rewards and protocol incentives. Voting ends on February 22.
- GMX is voting on a proposal to implement tiered trading fee discounts for stakeholders and a stakeholder-weighted trading leaderboard. Voting ends on February 22.
- Unlock
- February 20 – LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply worth $48.33 million.
- February 20 – Kaito (KAITO) will unlock 10.64% of its circulating supply worth $10.77 million.
- Token releases
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 1.97% as of 4 pm ET Thursday to $68,220.42 (24 hours: +1.98%)
- ETH is up 1.1% to $1,969.19 (24 hours: +0.12%)
- CoinDesk 20 rose 1.5% to 1,960.80 (24 hours: +1.14%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 2 Basis Points to 2.83%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0047% (-5.1936% annualized) on Binance
- DXY remains unchanged at 97.95
- Gold futures rise 0.97% to $5,046.00
- Silver futures up 3.9% to $80.66
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.12% at 56,825.70
- Hang Seng closed down 1.1% at 26,413.35
- The FTSE rises 0.69% to 10,700.09
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.48% to 6,088.42
- The DJIA closed Thursday down 0.54% at 49,395.16
- The S&P 500 closed down 0.28% at 6,861.89
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.31% at 22,682.73
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.61% at 33,594.98
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.83% at 3,738.74
- The 10-year US Treasury rate fell 0.4 basis points to 4.071%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rise 0.2% to 6,890.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rise 0.29% to 24,930.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average index futures rise 0.12% to 49,516.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.04% (+0.4%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02883 (-0.93%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,046 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $29.88
- Total fees: 2.36 BTC / $157,285
- CME Futures Open Interest: 119,935 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 13.5 oz.
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 4.54%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows the weekly price movements of bitcoin against the dollar.
- Weekly BTC/USD is still trading at its 200-week exponential moving average, awaiting confirmation by the end of the week.
- So far there are no clear divergences from the RSI or signs of a bottom.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $165.94 (+1.15%), +1.98% to $169.23 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $61.92 (-1.95%), +2.08% to $63.21
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.63 (-0.46%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $32.37 (+1.63%), -1.05% at $32.03
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $7.96 (+6.13%), +1.63% to $8.09
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.22 (+4.71%), +1.36% at $16.44
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.98 (+4.11%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.82 (+5.93%), +1.43% at $9.96
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.69 (+1.62%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.42 (+5.47%)
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $129.45 (+3.39%), +2.48% at $132.66
- Strive (ASST): closed at $8.12 (+0.87%), +0.99% at $8.20
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.80 (+3.03%)
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.67 (-3.33%), +3.48% at $0.69
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.10 (+0.00%)
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$165.8 million
- Accumulated net flows: $53.91 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.26 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$130.1 million
- Accumulated net flows: $11.55 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.73 million
Source: Farside Investors
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