XRP held steady near $1.42 as volatility fell to levels last seen before a major rally in 2024, raising questions about whether the downtrend is exhausting.
News background
- XRP is down about 61% from its all-time high during the current stretch of market turmoil, but recent price action suggests the sell-off may be slowing. Losses have moderated into consolidation, with small gains over shorter time frames replacing sharp directional moves.
- Notably, XRP’s historical volatility has fallen to 96, matching levels last seen in June 2024, a period that marked the bottom of a previous downtrend before a rally through November.
- The squeeze has fueled speculation that XRP may be entering a similar phase of base building.
- Some analysts point to parallels with structures from previous cycles, including the extended consolidation that preceded the 2017 breakout.
Price Action Summary
- XRP fell 0.14% to $1.42
- Price tested and held support near $1.39
- Volume increased almost 94% above average during the crisis
- Recovery stalled near resistance between USD 1,428 and USD 1,431
Technical analysis
- The key moment of the session came when XRP tested $1.3915 on heavy volume before stabilizing. While the bounce completed a 38.2% retracement, the momentum faded as the price approached $1.44, the daily pivot and short-term ceiling.
- The structure remains cautious below $1.44-1.45, but the successful defense of $1.39 suggests sellers are losing urgency. The decrease in volume during the consolidation points to a compression rather than a redistribution.
What do traders say will be next?
- Traders see this as a compression setup.
- If XRP reclaims $1.44, it opens space towards $1.50 and potentially $1.62.
If the $1.39 level is broken, the downside risk shifts towards $1.35. - With volatility near previous cycle lows, the next decisive move may have less to do with the direction now and more to do with how long this compression can hold before expansion resumes.
