The Supreme Court’s removal of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs, while a relief to many, portends more months of uncertainty as American businesses brace for new taxes and a fight over refunds unfolds.
A long road to refunds
The ruling begins a long fight over tariff refunds, as the duties, now considered illegal, generated some $133.5 billion from January 2025 to mid-December.
The high court did not address the issue of reimbursement and analysts say this will be decided by lower courts in the coming months.
The US Court of International Trade is expected to handle this process, said ING analysts Carsten Brzeski and Julian Geib.
“Refunds will not occur automatically, as any importer who wants their money back must sue individually,” they said.
“This process has already begun, with more than 1,000 corporate entities involved in a legal fight.”
Trump told reporters on Friday: “We will end up in court for the next five years.”
More volatility
Hours after the court decision, Trump promised to impose a new 10% tariff on imports under an alternative authority.
This is widely seen as a temporary measure to pave the way for longer-lasting tariffs, but in the meantime it will trigger other challenges and upheaval.
The law Trump is invoking for this tariff (Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974) only allows for a 150-day tariff unless Congress extends it.
Trump has said there will be new investigations into unfair trade practices under Section 301, a path to longer-lasting tariffs.
Josh Lipsky, chair of international economics at the Atlantic Council, said Friday’s ruling simply “opens a new chapter” in Trump’s tariff policy.
There will be “more uncertainty, more volatility for companies and more complicated trade agreements for countries,” Lipsky added.
Losing speed
But for now, the court’s decision “eliminates one of Trump’s quickest tools to impose sweeping tariffs,” ING said.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Friday that the tariffs based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) “were tailor-made for President Trump to exert leverage” against other countries.
“We were able to get them together very quickly,” he said.
“We will return to the same tariff level for the countries,” Bessent promised. “It will just be in a less direct and a little more complicated way.”
Uncertainty in the trade agreement?
With tariffs imposed through emergency economic powers forming the basis of recent trade talks, analysts warned that some partners could try to rethink their commitments.
Lipsky hopes that economies that have already made deals will keep them rather than “risk undoing a deal that has at least provided some stability.”
But those still finalizing deals may now have more influence.
Asia Society Policy Institute senior vice president Wendy Cutler hopes that abandoning the announced agreements “does not seem to be in the cards for our partners.”
“They know very well that such a move could end up leaving them in a worse position in the White House,” he said.
Lower tariffs?
With the Supreme Court ruling, consumers “face an overall average effective tariff rate of 9.1%, which remains the highest since 1946, excluding 2025,” according to The Budget Lab at Yale University.
This figure is less than 16.9%.
Despite Trump’s plan to move toward longer-lasting tariffs, Navy Federal Credit Union chief economist Heather Long expects Friday’s ruling will “force a reset of tariff policy.”
She anticipates that this will “likely lead to lower overall tariff rates and a more orderly imposition of future tariffs.”
