Analysts warn Taliban may boost support for TTP and BLA, risking wider conflict in Pakistan
An army soldier stands guard at a deserted entry point at the Friendship Gate, following exchanges of fire between Pakistani and Afghan forces, at the border crossing between the two countries, in Chaman, Pakistan, on February 27, 2026. Photo taken with a mobile phone. REUTERS/Abdul Khaliq Achakzai
Weeks after the Taliban’s lightning takeover of Afghanistan in 2021 from a US-led coalition, Pakistan’s then spy chief visited Kabul and told a journalist: “Don’t worry, everything will be fine.”
Five years later, Islamabad, once considered a Taliban patron, is engaged in its most intense fighting with the extremist group, which Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif has described as an “open war.”
The turmoil puts a wide swath of Asia, from the Gulf to the Himalayas, in flux, and the United States is building forces near Iran even as tensions between Pakistan and archrival India remain high after clashes last May.
At the center of the conflict with Afghanistan is Pakistan’s accusation that the Afghan Taliban provides support to militant groups, including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which have wreaked havoc across the country.
The Afghan Taliban, who had previously fought alongside the TTP, deny the allegation and insist that Pakistan’s security situation is its internal problem.
The disagreement is a reflection of sharply incompatible positions taken by both sides, as Pakistan expected compliance after decades of support for the Taliban, which did not see itself beholden to Islamabad, analysts said.
“Neither side had an honest conversation about what the relationship would really be like. That structural misunderstanding is the seed of everything that followed,” said Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili, a political scientist at the University of Pittsburgh and an expert on Afghanistan.
Although tensions have been simmering along their rugged 2,600-kilometer border for months following clashes last October, Friday’s fighting is notable because of Pakistan’s use of fighter jets to attack Taliban military installations rather than limiting attacks to the militants it supposedly harbors.
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These include targets in the country’s interior, in Kabul, as well as in the southern city of Kandahar, the seat of Taliban supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada, according to military spokesman Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry.
The clashes are unlikely to end there.
“We are in uncharted territory,” said Abdul Basit, an expert on militancy and violent extremism at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
“What we are witnessing is a recipe for instability, as a result of which there will be more violence, there will be more tensions. And terrorist groups will gain strength by exploiting the chaos.”
‘A nightmare scenario’ for Pakistan
Pakistan has a formidable army of 660,000 active personnel, backed by a fleet of 465 fighter aircraft, several thousand armored fighting vehicles and artillery pieces.
Across the border, the Afghan Taliban only has about 172,000 active military personnel, a few armored vehicles and no real air force.
But the battle-hardened group, which faced and outlasted a phalanx of Western military powers in 2001, has the option of leaning on insurgents like the TTP and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), going beyond border skirmishes.
“So basically the Taliban can take a step back from the abyss, or they can take a step forward and continue fighting in the border area, but also increase support for the TTP, the BLA and all the other groups to operate inside Pakistan,” said Avinash Paliwal, a professor of international relations at SOAS University of London.
The BLA has been at the center of a decades-long insurgency that has carried out large coordinated attacks in recent years.
Pakistan has long accused India of backing the insurgents, an accusation repeatedly denied by New Delhi, which has maintained a robust military deployment along the border since last May.
“A two-front situation has long been a nightmare scenario for Pakistan,” said former Pakistani diplomat Maleeha Lodhi.
“For Pakistan, a prolonged breakdown in relations [with Afghanistan] exacerbates its security challenge, given the unstable situation on the eastern border with India.”
Although a number of influential countries, including China, Russia, Turkiye and Qatar, have indicated their willingness to help mediate the conflict, all such efforts have met with limited success so far.
“The challenge for now is that there is a huge gap between the expectations of the two sides,” said Ibraheem Bahiss, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group who focuses on Afghanistan.
“Somehow we need to bridge that to come to a more realistic compromise that is feasible and digestible for both sides.”
