Six Polymarket accounts won approximately $1.2 million after correctly betting that the United States would attack Iran on February 28, according to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps.
In a post on market just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran and other cities. The accounts had no activity beyond these predictions.
The attacks followed a televised speech by US President Donald Trump in which he announced what he called “major combat operations” targeting the country’s nuclear, naval and missile infrastructure. The attack caused the price of bitcoin to drop while oil futures on Hyperliquid rose.
One Polymarket account that Bubblemaps pointed out bought more than 560,000 “Yes” shares at about 10.8 cents each, a position that paid out about $560,000 after the market settled at $1. Another account bought nearly 150,000 shares at 20 cents, making a six-figure profit. The six profiles were created in February, according to Polymarket data.
Trading volume in the Feb. 28 contract reached nearly $90 million, part of more than $529 million wagered in exercise date-related markets since December.
Bubblemaps published a visual map showing the six wallets grouped together and funded through similar paths.
Insider trading surveys
The trades land as US regulators evaluate how to police insider activity in prediction markets. This week, rival platform Kalshi said it suspended and fined two users for insider trading, including a visual effects editor for MrBeast’s “Beast Games” who allegedly traded on knowledge of the show’s results.
Kalshi, which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a designated contract market, said it has investigated about 200 cases and has more than a dozen active investigations.
The CFTC issued a notice outlining enforcement actions and warned that insider trading in event contracts may violate US law. President Mike Selig called bags the “first line of defense.” Kalshi banned the employee for two years and fined him more than $20,000. In another case, a political candidate was sanctioned for betting on his own career.
More recently, it appears that Polymarket traders are using insider trading in a market over insider trading itself. Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT teased last week that he would publish the results of an investigation into a crypto platform, which turned out to be Axiom, whose employees he believed used non-public information to trade.
However, ridicule about the upcoming investigation led to the creation of a Polymarket contract in which the company would be named. Some clearly knew the answer to which company was under investigation, and Lookonchain identified 12 wallets that bet heavily on Axiom before the revelation.
