Crypto markets rebounded strongly on Sunday after spending Saturday pricing in what looked like the start of a protracted regional war.
Bitcoin rose to $66,843, up 5.2% in the past 24 hours, recovering most of the losses from Saturday’s drop below $64,000 following the US and Israeli attacks on Iran.
The rally accelerated after Iranian state television confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, which markets interpreted as increasing the odds of a shorter conflict.
Solana led the recovery among major companies, rising 10.8% to $86.42. Ether rose 7.5% to regain $1,994, putting it back within striking distance of $2,000 for the first time since Thursday. Cardano added 6.7%, dogecoin gained 6.5%, XRP rose 5.6% and BNB rose 4.8%.
However, the weekly picture is more confusing. Bitcoin is still down 1.6% in seven days, XRP is down 2%, and dogecoin is down 2.5%. Solana and ether are the only major companies to return to the green during the week, up 1.7% and 1.1% respectively.
The weekend volatility has been huge, but the net movement has been small, which captures the broader story of a market that makes global headlines without really going anywhere.
The bounce looks convincing on a 24-hour chart, but fragile in context. Saturday’s liquidation occurred due to low liquidity over the weekend. Sunday’s rally came on the back of the same tight liquidity, in just the opposite direction.
The real test comes at a time when the stock, oil and bond futures markets reopen and institutional capital has its first opportunity to react to Saturday’s events.
The Polymarket ceasefire contract offers a 78% chance of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 and a 61% chance by March 31, as reported earlier Sunday.
If that price holds once the traditional markets assimilate the weekend, the rebound has strength. However, if oil rises and stocks fall at the open, the cryptocurrency’s Sunday optimism could fade the same way Wednesday’s push to $70,000 did.
