Bitcoin’s path to a market bottom could come as early as next month, if the price of gold-denominated bitcoin is any indication, according to Rony Szuster, head of research at Brazil’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, Mercado Bitcoin.
In dollar terms, the most recent peak occurred in October 2025, at around $126,000. If the current cycle follows past patterns, the slowdown could extend into late 2026, Szuster wrote in a report shared with CoinDesk.
But when the price is fixed in gold, the timeline changes. Bitcoin peaked against gold in January 2025. Applying the same 12-13 month pattern would place a possible bottom around February 2026, with a recovery possibly beginning in March.
The divergence reflects broader macroeconomic forces.
Since the start of Donald Trump’s new term, markets have faced aggressive trade tariffs, internal institutional disputes in the United States and growing tensions with China and Iran. Since then, growing tensions with the latter have led to an ongoing military conflict.
As a result, global uncertainty, as measured by the World Uncertainty Index, has skyrocketed. Gold benefited from that shift, rising more than 80% over the past year to $5,280. As capital was converted into bullion, bitcoin weakened against it before it did against the dollar, the Mercado Bitcoin analyst wrote.
Exchange-traded funds have also added pressure. Since November, around $7.8 billion has flown out of spot bitcoin ETFs, about 12% of the $61.6 billion total.
However, this fear-driven sell-off only shows part of the picture.
While reactive capital is fleeing bitcoin, large-scale investors or “whales” are treating the crisis as an accumulation zone, the report added, noting that major Abu Dhabi investment firms Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments added spot exposure to bitcoin ETFs in mid-February.
In this context, Szuster calls on investors to build their positions intelligently and take advantage of a dollar-cost averaging strategy to take advantage of the current market fear and avoid timing problems.
“Historically, buying during periods of fear has been more effective than buying during euphoria,” he wrote. “Does this mean that we have already hit bottom? No. But it means that, statistically, we are in the area where the best average prices are normally built.”
