- New Gartner report predicts PC sales will fall 10.4% this year
- The rising cost of RAM could make “low-margin entry-level laptops unviable”
- The analyst firm predicts: “Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment to disappear by 2028.”
For some time, there has been growing evidence that buying a PC now, rather than waiting, is a very sensible idea to avoid further RAM-driven price increases on desktops and laptops, and a new prediction from Gartner adds to this pile.
In a new report from the analyst firm (which was spotted by VGC), Gartner notes that “entry-level PCs face obsolescence” due to the rising cost of RAM, which is expected to peak this year at 23% of the total bill of materials for a PC (on average), up from 16% in 2025.
The bill of materials, known as BOM for short, is the cost of all the components that make up a PC. (From the CPU and GPU plus memory, to the SSD and motherboard, plus all the other frills like fans, connectors, the power supply and the case or chassis itself).
Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner, notes: “This sharp increase eliminates vendors’ ability to absorb costs, making low-margin entry-level laptops unviable. Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment to disappear by 2028.”
Atwal further predicts that: “In addition, rising AI PC prices will delay the projected 50% market penetration of AI PCs until 2028.”
Gartner estimates that PC shipments will fall 10.4% in 2026 compared to last year as the market weakens (and phone shipments will also fall by up to 8.4%, we’re told).
By the end of 2026, the analyst firm projects a 130% increase in RAM and SSD costs, which will increase PC selling prices by about 17% compared to 2025, Gartner believes – a considerable increase.
Analysis: The biggest contraction in PC shipments in over a decade
So this won’t just be a low-end PC issue, and it makes perfect sense that the high end of the market will also be affected by rising RAM (as well as storage) costs. Those devices have more wiggle room in terms of their overall cost to make the increases less impactful, of course.
Still, the general prediction is that the most expensive AI laptops (Copilot+) will lose sales momentum this year and next, and won’t recover until 2028, along with the disappearing act, which apparently will happen to sub-$500 laptops and desktops.
Unfortunately, it’s a pretty credible prediction, and even if those cheap PCs don’t disappear completely, I’d bet money on them being a lot thinner on the ground as the year 2026 progresses. HP has already said that the cost of RAM has skyrocketed for its laptops, and in fact, the manufacturer told us that the portion that system memory takes from the total bill of materials has doubled in the space of a quarter. Frankly, this is a frightening revelation that more than supports the point Gartner is making here.
So those who feel they may need a new laptop in the near future might be advised to start shopping for one now, especially if they’re looking at the budget end of the market.
Of course, there is another perspective. Instead of upgrading, people will simply keep their current PC for longer.
As Atwal notes: “This is the sharpest contraction in device shipments seen in more than a decade. Higher prices will reduce the range of devices available, leading buyers to hold on to devices longer, fundamentally altering upgrade cycles.”
Gartner theorizes that those expecting PC prices to calm down will likely mean that the average lifespan of a device will be extended by about 20% for consumers by the end of the year (and 15% for enterprise buyers). That could mean people are left with outdated laptops running Windows 10, of course, without updates (after extended support expires in October 2026) and with a number of security risks to deal with.
Whichever way you look at it, the outlook for the PC market is pretty bleak.
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