Bitcoin’s rally toward $70,000 (trading at $68,000 as Hong Kong hit midday) appears to have been driven more by positioning than conviction, according to market maker Enflux, which said the move largely reflected short covering after traders tilted lower amid geopolitical headlines.
“The market is not a price catastrophe, but neither is it a price resolution,” Enflux wrote in a note to CoinDesk. “Shorts tilted towards Iran headlines over the weekend, BTC rose to 63k, and when the rally didn’t immediately turn into a broader regional war affecting the Gulf and Dubai trade corridors, the squeeze began.”
Cryptocurrencies tend to react faster than traditional assets during geopolitical crises, Enflux added.
“When bombs fall or sanctions are tightened, capital looks for exit routes. In times of uncertainty, BTC becomes a pressure valve,” the company wrote.
Institutional demand has remained a key source of support. Over the past five trading days, BTC ETFs have attracted approximately $1.45 billion in net inflows.
Boomers return to the rescue as bitcoin ETFs record $1.5 billion in inflows in the last 5 days after another big day yesterday. Biggest haul in a long time, almost all ten original spot ETFs are also seeing action = breadth and depth. This after a 50% reduction (!) and most of it underwater.… pic.twitter.com/eF0VJqiPZ0
– Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) March 3, 2026
Onchain and derivatives indicators suggest that the market is stabilizing but is not yet regaining strong conviction.
In a recent report, Glassnode wrote that momentum indicators are starting to recover from recent weakness, with bitcoin’s relative strength index rising to around 41 from 36 the previous week, although still below the neutral 50 level that would indicate stronger bullish control.
Spot market conditions have also improved. Trading volume has increased to approximately $9.6 billion from $6.6 billion the previous week, while buying and selling flows in spot markets have become more balanced, suggesting that the previous wave of aggressive selling has begun to subside.
Derivatives markets remain cautious. Glassnode said the cost of holding leveraged long positions has fallen sharply, while futures trading still shows sellers dominating buyers, indicating continued caution among leveraged traders.
Prediction markets reflect the same cooling of conviction: the probability of Bitcoin falling to $65,000 in March has fallen 11 percentage points to 73%, the odds of $60,000 have fallen 10 points to 41%, and a separate Polymarket contract showing Bitcoin will reach $60,000 before $80,000 has also weakened, falling 12 points to 61%.
Taken together, the data suggests that Bitcoin has found support for now, but traders remain hesitant to price in a decisive rally or deeper sell-off.
