Polymarket suspends nuclear detonation markets after protests

Bettors have long been able to speculate on the possibility of a nuclear weapon detonating at Polymarket, but the current conflict with Iran (and scrutiny over insider trading in the war) has apparently caused the platform to scrap contracts.

The markets, which asked users to assign probabilities for whether a nuclear weapon would detonate on specific dates, have circulated on Polymarket for years and have historically resolved “No.”

But the renewed attention on the contracts comes as prediction markets face criticism after one trader reportedly made more than $400,000 betting on the overthrow of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro shortly before the US operation that led to his capture, raising questions about whether insiders could exploit the platforms to trade in the event of war (such as the start of this current conflict with Iran) and other military actions.

Historical trading suggests that contracts occasionally price significant risk.

A Polymarket contract in 2023 at one point implied an approximately 19% chance that a nuclear weapon would detonate before the end of the year, according to data from the platform.

A later market expiring in June 2025 was trading around 12%.

The markets also attracted significant commercial activity. The 2025 contract alone recorded more than $1.7 million in volume, while the 2023 version attracted nearly $700,000 in bets.

All of this comes as US regulators consider how to supervise prediction markets.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed rules in 2024 that would prohibit the exchanges it regulates from listing contracts for events related to war, terrorism, murder or other activities deemed contrary to the public interest.

Chairman Mike Selig said the Commission plans to issue clearer guidance on prediction markets in the near future.