By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
bitcoin rose to just under $72,000, hitting a one-month high and lifting the broader crypto market even as war in the Middle East wreaks havoc on traditional markets.
The outperformance is due to several factors, including relative positioning, increasing odds of passage of the mooted U.S. Clarity Act aimed at legalizing stablecoins, and hopes that the conflict with Iran will end soon.
Bitcoin, which was down nearly 50% from its all-time high in October, was oversold before hostilities began on Saturday. So when traditional assets fell, BTC held up well. This has likely revived investor interest in the largest cryptocurrency, causing institutions to return to spot ETFs.
As noted on Monday, bitcoin may win because the war will only worsen government finances around the world, leading to further “degradation of fiat money.”
Meanwhile, the New York Times published an interesting report that likely contributed to the price rebound. according to Bloomberg. The report said that the day after the attacks began, agents from Iran’s Intelligence Ministry contacted the CIA to discuss terms for ending the war. While the United States ignored the proposal, the communication suggests that the back channels are still active and could be used again, which could lead to a ceasefire.
Finally, there is a possibility that the Clarity Law will be passed soon.
“Speculation was circulating in the United States that the Clarity Act was about to become law. This helped lift many altcoins relative to major assets as they are expected to be among the biggest long-term beneficiaries of the legislation,” Paul Howard, director at trading firm Wincent, said in an email.
However, he added that there is currently no solid evidence that a lot of marginalized money is waiting to flood into digital assets, and any rotation is still relatively small or gradual.
Looking ahead, traders expect volatility to persist, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz, a key bottleneck for oil supplies, remains closed and oil prices continue to rise.
“We expect continued volatility, but if the disruption persists, pressure to reopen Hormuz is likely to increase. Bitcoin has held up better than the broader risk, and is worth watching as an early sign of sentiment stabilization,” said QCP Capital’s market analysis team. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- March 4, 8:15 am: US ADP employment change for February (previous 22K)
- March 4, 10:00 am: February US ISM Services PMI (previous 53.8)
- March 4, 2:00 p.m.: US Federal Reserve Beige Book
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Uniswap DAO is voting on two linked proposals to expand v2 and v3 protocol fees to eight Layer 2 networks and enable a new tier-based fee system across all v3 pools. Voting ends March 4 and 5.
- ENS DAO is voting to replace three Oracle DNSSEC algorithms to patch a critical RSA signature forgery vulnerability and significantly reduce gas costs. Voting ends March 4.
- Unlock
- Token releases
- March 4: Block Street (BSB) to list on Binance Alpha, Bybit and others.
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 4.49% as of 4 pm ET Wednesday to $71,283.58 (24 hours: +6.65%)
- ETH is up 5.19% to $2,068.65 (24 hours: +5.64%)
- CoinDesk 20 rose 4.31% to 3,086.55 (24 hours: +5.45%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 1bp to 2.85%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0051% (5.6119% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.25% at 98.81
- Gold futures rise 1.70% to $5,194.10
- Silver futures rise 4.00% to $86.24
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 3.61% at 54,245.54
- Hang Seng closed down 2.01% at 25,249.48
- The FTSE 100 rises 0.18% to 10,502.97
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.70% to 5,812.08
- DJIA closed Tuesday down 0.83% at 48,501.27
- The S&P 500 closed down 0.94% at 6,816.63
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.02% at 22,516.69
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 2.19% at 33,784.90
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed with a fall of 4.95% to 3,539.33
- The 10-year US Treasury rate rises 1 bp to 4.06%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures unchanged at 6,825.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures unchanged at 24,762.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 0.12% to 48,501.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.61% (+0.81%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02909 (0.26%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,025 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $31.26
- Total fees: 2.71 BTC / $183,733
- CME Futures Open Interest: 101,620 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 13.7 oz.
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 4.77%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows weekly bitcoin price swings in candlestick format since the beginning of 2024.
- The bounce above $71,000 has renewed attention on the $74,000 level, which acted as resistance, an area where buyers turned in March 2024, and then as support, where sales stalled last April.
- This level therefore represents an area of important historical economic activity and could now serve as a key inflection zone: a break and hold above $74,000 may open the door to a push towards higher levels, while a repeated failure there could reignite selling pressure.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Tuesday at $182.36 (–1.55%), +6.66% to $194.51 in pre-market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.68 (–4.83%), +4.01% to $21.51
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.66 (–8.36%), +6.47% to $9.22
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.29 (–6.94%), +3.53% at $15.83
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.30 (–7.22%), +2.55% at $15.69
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.89 (–6.26%), +4.25% to $10.31
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.83 (+3.44%), +0.65% to $10.90
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $37.88 (–6.31%), +4.67% to $39.65
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Closed at $99.63 (+3.63%), +6.15% at $105.76
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $33.12 (–2.04%), +2.93% to $34.09
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $132.68 (–3.61%), +7.70% at $142.89
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.79 (–10.80%), +14.65% to $0.90
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.15 (+2.68%)
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.26 (–1.76%), +4.68% to $7.60
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $225.2 million
- Accumulated net flows: $55.47 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.28 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$10.8 million
- Accumulated net flows: $11.66 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.71 million
Source: Farside Investors
