bitcoin fell to $67,960 on Saturday morning, down 3.4% in the past 24 hours and a sharp pullback from last week’s high. The move fits what has become a recurring script in recent months, with late-week sales dragging prices toward the lower end of the range heading into Saturday.
Majors once again received the hardest blow. Ether fell 4.4% to $1,974, Solana fell 4% to $84.31, dogecoin lost 2.9% to $0.09, and BNB fell 2.6% to $627. XRP fell 2.2% to $1.37.
However, the weekly picture tells a more nuanced story. Bitcoin is still up 3.6% in seven days. Ether has gained 2.6%. BNB added 2.1%. The midweek surge absorbed the impact of the war and then some, even if Friday’s pullback took the shine off it.
Meanwhile, the dollar posted its steepest weekly gain in a year, strengthening as markets priced in higher energy costs, stiffer inflation and a Federal Reserve that has even less room to cut rates. This is a direct obstacle for bitcoin and any other asset denominated against the dollar.
“As tensions rose in the Middle East last week, investors quickly moved to the safety of the US dollar, which strengthened as markets began to price in higher energy prices and reignited inflation fears, which could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts,” Björn Schmidtke, CEO of Aurelion, said in an email to CoinDesk.
On-chain data paints a fragile picture beneath the surface. Data from Glassnode shows that 43% of the total bitcoin market supply is now lost. This is a significant surplus.
As Bitcoin recovers, those underwater holders have an incentive to sell on any rally to break even, creating persistent resistance on the way up. It is one of the reasons why the momentum to $74,000 on Thursday could not be sustained. Every rebound toward higher prices collides with supply from people who have been waiting months to get out.
One bright spot came from stablecoin flows. Messari saw a 415% increase in net stablecoin inflows to $1.7 billion over the week, with daily transfers up nearly 10%. This is potentially dry powder waiting to be deployed, and suggests that retail is not completely absent despite the feeling of fear. The question is whether that capital rotates into bitcoin or waits for lower prices.
The war continues to set the pace. The conflict between the United States and Iran showed no signs of resolution this week. Oil remains high. The Strait of Hormuz remains disturbed. And the macroeconomic backdrop of a strong dollar, sticky inflation and delays in rate cuts is the worst combination for risk assets.
Bitcoin’s week looked impressive in the headlines, hitting $74,000 mid-week, but the round trip from $68,000 to $74,000 and back to $68,000 is just another reversal of the range.
