BlackRock’s Rick Rieder, UBS’s Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi and hedge fund manager Daniel Loeb see an economy in 2026 that could continue to grow even as the market’s center of gravity shifts.
The overall message from their separate appearances at a conference in Miami last week was not that the rise of AI is coming to an end. Instead, they said, the easy phase may be over. As capital expands beyond a handful of giant US tech stocks, investors may need to think less about tackling a theme and more about where growth, pricing power and disruption will appear next.
That vision could be important for crypto markets, particularly bitcoin . If investors move away from the crowded trades that defined recent years, some may look more toward assets outside traditional equity sectors. Bitcoin has often been marketed as a high-beta technology proxy during risk-on periods, but it can also attract demand when investors seek diversification from dollar assets, long-duration growth stocks, or amid political uncertainty.
In practice, however, bitcoin has not consistently performed as the primary hedge against dollar weakness, especially in recent months when gold has been the dominant asset as investors move away from the dollar. But as bitcoin matures (many argue it’s still a young asset compared to gold) that could change.
Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock, said he has been expanding portfolios away from concentrated technology bets. He said he still likes some parts of technology, but called the investment landscape as different from last year as any he can remember in a long time.
His outlook is based in part on the idea that U.S. growth could surprise to the upside even if rates fall. Rieder said AI-driven productivity could help the economy expand, while a still weak labor market keeps inflation contained. He also argued that tariffs may be important for certain industries, but have less economy-wide impact because the United States relies more on services than goods.
For bitcoin, that combination goes both ways. Stronger growth and lower rates would typically support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. But if inflation remains contained and real economic activity improves, investors may feel less urgency to look for alternative stores of value. In that setup, the case for bitcoin may depend less on macroeconomic fear and more on portfolio diversification and institutional adoption.
Hoffmann-Burchardi, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management and global head of equities, also said the macro backdrop should improve this year, pointing to fiscal stimulus in major economies and more room for rate cuts in the United States. However, his biggest point was that AI trading is changing.
After three years in which markets rewarded companies that enabled the development of AI, he said investors are entering a phase in which winners and losers will separate more sharply. UBS has responded by cutting its overweight rating on technology and communications services and shifting toward industrials, electrification and healthcare.
That rotation could also affect cryptocurrencies. If stock investors become more selective about AI and digital business models, tokens tied to broad AI narratives may face greater scrutiny. Bitcoin may be better positioned than smaller crypto assets in that environment because its investment case is simpler. It doesn’t depend on demonstrating a software revenue model or winning a race for AI market share.
Loeb, founder of hedge fund Third Point, said the market is already rewarding investors who do deeper stock picking and more short selling. He described a shift away from crowded mega-cap operations toward smaller, niche companies, including companies in Europe, Japan and South Korea that supply key parts of AI development.
As for the economy, Loeb said the United States is in a good place for the next six months, although he was less sure about the prospects beyond that. He also said that strains on private credit, especially loans linked to software companies, are likely to lead to losses over time, but not a systemic shock.
Together, the three investors described a year in which growth continues, AI remains the dominant force and markets become more difficult to navigate. For bitcoin, that may mean fewer tailwinds from simple momentum trades and a greater need to stand on its own as a hedge, diversifier or liquid alternative in a more fragmented market.
