Oil futures rose above $110 a barrel on Monday as rising tensions in the Middle East rattled global markets, sending Asian stocks down sharply, with all markets in the region opening deep in the red, even as bitcoin held steady near $67,000.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose about 17% in 24 hours. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell more than 6% and South Korea’s Kospi fell about 8% as traders repriced energy costs in import-dependent economies.
The rally centers on the risk that fighting could restrict oil flows near the Strait of Hormuz, the bottleneck through which about 20% of the world’s crude supply passes daily. Prediction markets on Polymarket assign a 76% probability that crude oil will reach $120 by the end of March.
Bitcoin traded around $67,000 with few signs of panic selling. Ether and solana posted modest gains, suggesting that crypto markets have so far treated the rise as a specific energy shock rather than a broad risk-off event.
Not all operators are convinced that the measure will have an effect. Oil perpetual futures funding rates turned negative on Hyperliquid, indicating significant positioning for a pullback even as spot prices rise.
Markets still see little chance of an imminent rate cut.
Contracts on Polymarket show a roughly 98% chance that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged at its March 18 meeting, with just a 12% chance of a 25 basis point cut by the end of April.
A sustained rally in crude oil would reinforce inflationary pressures, something the Federal Reserve would have to consider when setting rates.
