The VIX and bitcoin often move in opposite directions, with sharp spikes in the volatility index frequently coinciding with bitcoin’s local lows.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures expected volatility in the S&P 500 based on options prices and is widely seen as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” jumped to its highest level in nearly a year, surpassing 35. The rise indicates growing panic in traditional markets.
The move came as global markets reacted to a rise in oil prices. WTI crude oil briefly rose to around $120 when futures opened on Sunday, before retreating towards $100. The volatility has hit both traditional safe havens and stocks, with both US stocks and gold falling.
Bitcoin, however, has departed from that trend. The largest cryptocurrency is up about 5% in the last 24 hours and is trading above $69,000.
Historically, bitcoin tends to bottom when the VIX rises. During the tariff-driven market turmoil in April 2025, bitcoin found support near $75,000 as the VIX rose to around 60. In August 2024, the easing of the yen carry trade pushed the VIX above 64, while bitcoin fell to about $49,000. A similar pattern emerged during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023, when the VIX briefly rose above 30 and bitcoin hit a local low near $20,000.
Bitcoin’s own volatility indicator suggests that the cryptocurrency market has already experienced its panic phase. The Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility Index (BVIV), which measures expected price swings arising from bitcoin options pricing, spiked above 96 in early February, when bitcoin briefly fell to $60,000, the highest level since the yen carry trade turmoil in August 2024. BVIV is now back to just above 60.
That divergence could indicate that crypto markets were at the forefront of the tension now affecting traditional finance, although a VIX near 30 suggests that volatility in traditional markets may not be over yet.
