Circle (CRCL) has recently outperformed other cryptocurrency-linked stocks, a move that investment bank William Blair says reflects more than changing macroeconomic conditions.
“It is tempting to attribute the recent strength to rising oil prices and perhaps a more hawkish Fed,” analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury wrote in a note to clients on Thursday.
“However, we believe there is more at stake, including the resilience of USDC’s market cap despite a crypto crash and the growing appreciation of Circle’s economic model and leadership in stablecoin infrastructure,” the analysts said.
The bank reiterated its outperform rating on the stock, arguing that the rally, which has lifted the stock roughly 126% from its February low, reflects improving sentiment toward stablecoin infrastructure rather than near-term market noise.
Shares were up 1.2% at press time, trading around $114.20.
Cryptocurrency-linked stocks have largely followed, and often amplified, the recent slowdown in digital assets, with shares of cryptocurrency exchanges, miners and treasury companies falling as bitcoin retreated from its late-2025 highs.
Stocks like Coinbase (COIN) and other crypto-exposed companies have generally moved in tandem with digital asset prices, reflecting the sector’s close link to trading volumes and token valuations, and in some cases have declined even more sharply than the underlying assets during market stress.
Japanese bank Mizuho said in a report last week that part of Circle’s rally may be related to the recent rise in oil prices following escalating tensions in the Middle East. Higher crude oil prices could stoke new concerns about inflation, the bank said, which could dampen expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Analysts at William Blair said investors had previously been too bearish on Circle amid regulatory uncertainty and expectations of interest rate cuts. Now, the company sees signs that the market is starting to recognize the company’s core thesis: stablecoins could become a key layer of global payments infrastructure.
According to analysts, USDC could emerge as one of the few dominant standards in cross-border trading, citing its liquidity, first-mover advantage, and integration across crypto networks.
The report also pointed to growing activity across Circle’s infrastructure and payments, including its stablecoin payments network, as evidence that the stablecoin-based settlement market is beginning to take shape.
While other companies and technology platforms have launched their own stablecoins, the report says that Circle’s payment orchestration, cross-chain transfer and minting infrastructure could provide a lasting competitive moat as the sector develops.
Read more: How the Iran War and Trader Positioning Could Be Behind Circle’s Stock Rise
