Why Arthur Hayes is an optimist: In an interview with CoinDesk’s Jennifer Sanasie on MArkets Outlook, Hayes said Hyperliquid has separated itself from competing perpetual futures exchanges with real-world usage rather than incentive-driven volume.
- Hayes told Sanasie that he sold his company’s HYPE position between $50 and $55 ahead of the expected token unlock push, but became bullish again after the team decided not to sell the majority of its monthly token allocations.
- He said Hyperliquid still generates about $1 billion in annualized revenue based on 30-day rates data.
- The platform’s HIP-3 permissionless listing system has expanded trading beyond cryptocurrencies to assets such as oil or stock indices.
What is driving activity? Hayes said traders are increasingly using Hyperliquid to access markets that are not available through traditional platforms.
- Retail traders can trade assets like oil or Nasdaq proxies 24/7 on-chain using stablecoins and crypto wallets.
- Hayes said 10x-20x leverage is often available compared to the 2x-3x that many retail investors receive on traditional brokerage platforms.
- Geopolitical events over the weekend, such as sudden conflict announcements, have pushed traders to use Hyperliquid while traditional markets are closed.
Why Hyperliquid stands out: Hayes argued that Hyperliquid’s trading and liquidity metrics show more genuine market activity than rival decentralized exchanges.
- Many competing platforms rely on wash trading or token incentive programs to inflate activity, Hayes said.
- He evaluates trades using the ratio of trading volume to open interest, which he says helps identify genuine trading demand.
- Hayes said Hyperliquid has the lowest ratio among major perpetual DEXs, indicating more “real” trading.
- The platform also offers the lowest slippage for large perpetual bitcoin trades ranging from $100,000 to $10 million, he said.
What could derail the thesis: Hayes said growing advertising and stronger competition could point to a possible exit point.
- He said he would reconsider his position if HYPE’s price-earnings ratio rises sharply and market sentiment becomes overwhelmingly bullish.
- Another risk is whether competitors offering lower fees can erode Hyperliquid’s roughly 70% share of perpetual DEX revenue.
- Hayes said maintaining strong revenue and continued moderation in the team’s token sale are key to sustaining the bull case.
Beyond HYPE: Hayes also highlighted privacy-focused crypto projects as a developing narrative.
- He said Zcash could benefit from growing concerns about blockchain surveillance and AI-powered transaction analysis.
- Hayes cited Zcash’s crypto upgrades and privacy model as reasons why he prefers it to alternatives like Monero.
Bitcoin Outlook: Hayes maintained his aggressive forecast for Bitcoin.
- He reiterated that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of the year despite missing previous targets.
