Circle’s USDC (CRCL) surpassed Tether’s USDT in trading volumes for the first time since 2019, prompting Japanese investment bank Mizuho to raise its price target for the stablecoin issuer to $120 from $100, while reiterating its neutral rating on the stock.
Shares rose 1% in early trading to $115.40 and have risen about 95% since their February lows.
Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins raised their Circle estimates, citing “USDC activity trends and use cases like Polymarket or agent trading expectations.”
Stablecoins, digital tokens backed by reserves like fiat currency or gold, serve as key payment and settlement avenues in the crypto economy, particularly for cross-border trade and transfers. The sector is dominated by Tether’s USDT with a market capitalization of $143 billion, followed by Circle’s USDC with $78 billion.
According to its report on Friday, USDC has recorded around $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume so far in 2026, compared to $1.3 trillion for USDT. That gives USDC about a 64% share of adjusted volumes, a sharp shift from the 2019-2025 period, when Tether consistently led, and USDC averaged about a 30% share.
Analysts said the change is important because the long-term winner among stablecoins will likely be determined by actual economic use rather than just market capitalization. Standard Chartered expects the market capitalization of stablecoins to reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028.
Reflecting stronger USDC activity and expanding use cases, Mizuho analysts raised several long-term Circle forecasts. They now expect “significant wallets” to reach 11.7 million by 2027, up from a previous estimate of 10 million, which will help raise USDC’s projected market capitalization to $139 billion from $123 billion.
Circle has recently outperformed other cryptocurrency-linked stocks.
Analysts at William Blair said in a note Thursday that while recent gains could easily be linked to rising oil prices and a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve, other factors are likely driving the move.
Instead, they pointed to the resilience of USDC’s market cap despite the broader cryptocurrency slowdown, along with growing investor recognition of Circle’s economic model and its leadership in stablecoin infrastructure.
Other analysts pointed to a positioning-driven short squeeze, rather than fundamentals, as the driver of the stock’s recent bullish move.
While the company achieved strong growth in USDC supply, the stock’s huge post-earnings reaction was more due to the crowded short bets being published than to strong financials, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.
Read more: Circle’s outperformance highlights USDC’s staying power, says bullish Wall Street analyst
