Bitcoin briefly broke the $74,000 resistance zone that it had rejected four times in two weeks, before retreating below that level.
The largest cryptocurrency was trading just above $74,000 on Monday morning, up 2.9% over the past 24 hours and 9.7% on the week. Ether rose 7.7% over 24 hours and 14.3% over the week to $2,261, its strongest weekly performance in months. Solana was up 5.6% on the day and 12% on the week to $93.
Dogecoin hit $0.10 for the first time since early March, up 4.6% daily and 10.6% weekly. BNB gained 3.8% to $683 with a weekly gain of 9.5%. XRP rose 4.2% to $1.47, an increase of 8.9% in seven days.
The move had a brief squeeze behind it. CoinGlass data shows $344 million in total liquidations in the last 24 hours among 91,978 traders, with short liquidations accounting for $284.9 million, about 83% of the total. Ether shorts were the most affected with $127.9 million, followed by bitcoin shorts with $124.5 million and solana shorts with $18.5 million.
The largest single liquidation was a $6.94 million BTC position on Bitfinex. The asymmetric ratio confirms that the rally was driven in part by bears being forced to exit their positions, although the broad participation of altcoins and the macroeconomic backdrop suggest there is more than just a contraction.
The catalyst was a change in tone from multiple directions at once. Trump said the United States was talking to Iran, although Tehran denied requesting talks or a ceasefire. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz was only closed to “enemy” ships, a notable softening of the general closure that had been in force.
Two tankers carrying liquefied petroleum gas to India crossed the strait on Sunday, the first commercial transit since the war began.
Oil reflected the change in mood. Brent was trading around $104 after previously rising as high as $106.50 following the attacks on Kharg Island, but retreated as the Hormuz headlines emerged. WTI fell below $100. The dollar weakened by 0.3%. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.5%, preparing for their first gain in five days. MSCI’s global equity gauge stabilized after three days of declines.
For cryptocurrencies, the combination of easing oil, a weaker dollar, and even a hint of de-escalation is the exact macro cocktail that loosens the liquidity chain that has been suffocating risk assets since the war began.
The weekly figures are the most impressive since before the war. Bitcoin’s 9.7% gain is strong, but altcoins’ outperformance is the sign that risk appetite is truly returning. When ether outperforms bitcoin by 4.6 percentage points and solana outperforms by 2.3 points weekly, capital is rotating down the risk curve instead of hiding in bitcoin.
The Fed meeting on March 17 and 18 comes with a different context than a week ago.
Oil remains elevated, but the Strait of Hormuz showing signs of reopening changes the inflation calculus. The dot plot and Powell’s press conference on Wednesday will determine whether the market’s hopes for rate cuts survive or will be crushed.
