bitcoin It briefly touched $75,912 early Tuesday before retreating to $74,372, but the intraday volatility is less interesting than the weekly picture below.
CoinDesk reported earlier on Tuesday that the push above $75,000 was driven by derivatives activity rather than new purchases, specifically the closing of large $60,000 short positions that forced market makers to buy bitcoins spot as they rebalanced.
The rapid pullback below $74,400, a former April 2025 support level, confirmed that traders are unwilling to break above that level without a fundamental catalyst.
Every major token is up at least 5% in seven days. Ether rose 13.3% to $2,316. xrp rose 11% to $1.53, olana gained 9.7% to $93.92. Dogecoin added 9.5% to $0.10, again above the dime. BNB rose 5% to $676. It is the largest sustained rally since before the war with Iran began, and it comes on the eve of the most consequential Federal Reserve meeting in months.
But the institutional flow data underlying the rally is real and increasingly difficult to dismiss. CF Benchmarks analyst Mark Pilipczuk noted in an email that spot bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $767 million in net inflows last week, the third consecutive week of positive flows and a sharp reversal of the five-week, $3 billion-plus outflow streak earlier this year.
The gold convergence trade is another signal worth watching. Year to date through mid-March, GLD gained about 16%, while IBIT lost about 19%. But that gap has narrowed dramatically, and bitcoin has outperformed gold by 13.2% since the beginning of March. The 90-day correlation between the two went from -0.27 to +0.29 in six months. The “digital gold” narrative that seemed dead in February is getting oxygen again.
The Federal Reserve meeting that begins today and concludes Wednesday is the turning point. CME FedWatch still rates a greater than 95% probability of a hold between 3.5% and 3.75%, so the decision itself is a non-event.
What matters is the dot plot and Powell’s press conference. Oil above $100 makes the case of stagflation inevitable, but the labor market is weakening, and the loss of 92,000 jobs in February is still fresh. The Federal Reserve is caught between two mandates going in opposite directions, and how Powell articulates that tension on Wednesday could set the direction of risk assets through the end of March.
