By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
bitcoin and the broader crypto market are taking a breather ahead of today’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which could confirm that the interest rate backdrop is becoming less favorable.
The central bank is widely expected to keep the benchmark borrowing cost unchanged in the 3.5%-3.75% range, focusing on growth and inflation projections, as well as Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments at the post-meeting news conference.
“For investors, the key question is whether the dot plot shifts toward fewer cuts and whether Powell emphasizes the danger of easing financial conditions too quickly,” said Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, referring to the graph of where decision makers expect interest rates to be at the end of the year. “Any of these developments would reinforce the ‘higher for longer’ bias and tighten financial conditions at the margin.”
According to Dori, the price of bitcoin is at a critical moment, where repeated failures to stay above $75,000 indicate caution and mean-reverting behavior. If the Federal Reserve raises the alarm about the inflationary impact of the Iran war-related oil price shock and reinforces expectations for slower or delayed rate cuts, then BTC is likely to remain below $75,000.
“A more aggressive stance could keep bitcoin capped below 75,000 and extend the current consolidation phase,” he noted.
Singapore-based QCP Capital said markets have lowered expectations for easing as higher oil prices complicate the case for interest rate cuts, even as jobs and growth data soften. This leaves the rate context less favorable for cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin’s stalled rally comes despite renewed institutional appetite for spot ETFs and regulatory clarity from the SEC and CFTC.
The broader market continues to reflect the largest cryptocurrency. The CoinDesk 20 index has been broadly stable over the past 24 hours, along with similar stocks in ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), solana (SOL), and other majors. However, smaller coins like SIREN, M and KAS have gained around 10% each.
In traditional markets, futures linked to the S&P 500 index are up 0.5%, indicating an extension of a two-day rally. Meanwhile, the dollar index retreated to 99.50 from Friday’s high above 100, and the 10-year Treasury yield retreated to 4.17% from 4.30%. Together, these moves point to continued risk sentiment. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- March 18, 8:30 am ET: US monthly PPI for February estimated 0.3% (previously 0.5%); MoM estimate of underlying PPI (previously 0.8%)
- March 18, 8:30 am: US YoY PPI for February estimated at 3.7% (previously 3.6%); Estimated underlying PPI year-on-year 3.2% (previous 3.6%)
- March 18, 9:45 am: Bank of Canada interest rate decision estimated at 2.25% (previously 2.25%)
- March 18, 10:00 am: January MoM US Factory Orders (previously -0.7%)
- March 18, 2:00 pm: Federal Reserve interest rate decision estimated at 3.50%-3.75% (previously 3.50%-3.75%); FOMC Economic Projections
- March 18, 2:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Chairman press conference
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 18: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market, -$0.03
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- March 18: Jupiter (JUP) will hold its weekly Planetary Call community session with team updates.
- March 18: head of marketing and public relations to discuss ecosystem updates.
- WalletConnect Network is voting on allocating 50 million WCT tokens as a dedicated rewards budget for WalletConnect Pay in 2026. Voting ends on March 18.
- ENS is voting on a one-time transfer of 900,000 USDC from the ENS Endowment to wallet.ensdao.eth to cover a shortfall in ongoing payments due to ENS Labs. Voting closes on March 18.
- Unlock
- Token releases
- March 18: Katana (KAT) will list on Binance, MEXC, KuCoin and others.
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.73% as of 4 pm ET Tuesday to $73,825.38 (24 hours: +0.11%)
- ETH is down 0.44% to $2,307.45 (24 hours: -0.33%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 0.78% at 2,148.73 (24 hours: -0.27%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 6 basis points to 2.75%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0069% (-7.5643% annualized) on Binance
- DXY remains unchanged at 99.56
- Gold futures fall 0.10% to $4,996.20
- Silver futures rise 0.65% to $80.05
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 2.87% at 55,239.40
- Hang Seng closed up 0.61% at 26,025.42
- The FTSE 100 rises 0.29% to 10,433.60
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rises 1.02% to 5,828.33
- The DJIA closed Tuesday up 0.10% at 46,993.26
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.25% at 6,716.09
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.47% at 22,479.53
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.16% at 32,929.09
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed with a fall of 3.50% to 3,459.11
- The 10-year US Treasury rate fell 2 basis points to 4.20%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures up 1.30% to 6,809.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rise 1.57% to 25,184.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rise 1.18% to 47,595.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.11 (0.15%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03139 (0.1%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 919 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $32.37
- Total fees: 3.08 BTC / $228,857
- CME Futures Open Interest: 115,080 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 14.9 oz.
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 4.93%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows the number of BTC/USD long positions or bullish bets on Bitfinex.
- Growth has stalled, with the count now at 78,470 down from 79,115 earlier this month.
- As counterintuitive as it may seem, the data above shows that declines in long positions on Bitfinex tend to be bullish for BTC, and vice versa.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Tuesday at $210.23 (+3.40%), +1.77% at $213.95 in premarket
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $23.50 (+1.73%), +0.89% at $23.71
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.24 (+0.11%), +0.97% at $9.33
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.68 (+1.94%), +1.02% at $14.83
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.42 (–3.24%), +1.46% to $16.66
- CleanSpark (CLSK): Closed at $10.11 (+0.90%), +0.99% at $10.21
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $9.24 (–0.86%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.13 (–0.79%)
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $132.31 (+5.15%), +1.50% at $134.30
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $39.94 (+0.81%), +1.10% to $40.38
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy Inc. (MSTR): Closed at $150.28 (+1.87%), +0.32% at $150.76
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $11.10 (+2.21%), unchanged from the previous market
- SharpLink (SBET): closed at $8.31 (+1.34%), +0.48% to $8.35
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.15 (+6.48%), –0.87% to $1.14
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.21 (–3.20%)
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $199.4 million
- Accumulated net flows: $56.51 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $138.2 million
- Accumulated net flows: $11.99 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.76 million
Source: Farside Investors
