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March Madness brackets are consuming homes across the United States, but with the expanded legalization of sports betting, more bets are being placed on tournament games.
The tournament is the only thing that could compete with the Super Bowl in terms of betting, with 32 games being played on the field and each one being watched by millions across the country.
Picking upsets in brackets is stressful enough: you know they will happen, but you don’t know which ones. But choosing them all at one bookmaker could be beneficial.
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General view of the second round of the 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament between the New Mexico Lobos and the Michigan State Spartans at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse on March 23, 2025, in Cleveland, Ohio. (Jason Mowry/Getty Images)
Since 2008, the 12 seeds are 28-40 against the 5 seeds; That .410 winning percentage certainly isn’t bad for teams that are typically underdogs by nearly double digits. Combine that with No. 11 seeds that have been close to .500 (37-39) in the first round since 2006, and bettors could have cashed in even if their brackets had been blown.
“That’s where it hits and that’s where, you know, the surprises have happened,” Johnny Avello, a DraftKings bettor, told Pak Gazette Digital in a recent interview.
Since 2019, the top 10 seeds are also 10-13 against 7 seeds, and a seventh seed advanced due to COVID-19 in 2021. In the last nine tournaments dating back to 2016, the No. 9 seeds are 22-14 against the No. 8 seeds, with the No. 8 team winning the most games just twice. in that period.
Five players have been suspended this offseason for gambling, and a sixth is on the way. (Budrul Chukrut/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
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Because of these trends, Avello has seen several lower seeds narrow their point differentials, including No. 11 South Florida against No. 6 Louisville (7-5 point underdogs) and No. 12 High Point against No. 5 Wisconsin (12.5 to 9.5). No. 12 Akron also went from being a 9.5-point favorite to 7.5 against No. 5 Texas Tech.
Now, while some may want to go big or go home with some of the 13th to 16th spots (congratulations to those who bet on UMBC in 2018 and Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023), it may not be wise. In fact, Avello said many bettors bet heavily on the favorites in those matchups.
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Avello opened No. 2 Purdue (which lost to the aforementioned FDU) as a 23-point favorite against Queens, but that spread is now 25. No. 2 Iowa State went from a 23.5-point favorite to a 25.5-point favorite against No. 15 Tennessee State, while No. 3 Gonzaga also saw its margin against Kennesaw State go from 18.5 to 20.5.
Texas Tech remains the smallest five-seed favorite, but Vanderbilt and St. John’s are -11.5 against McNeese State and Northern Iowa, respectively. To put it in context, the biggest difference in a 5-12 matchup last year was Clemson’s 7.5 against McNeese, who pulled off the upset. Two other five seeds were placed at -2.5.
A general view of the March Madness logo on center court at the Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena. (Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports)
And for what it’s worth, two No. 13 seeds were single-digit favorites last year, but this year they are all favorites to win by double digits.
