On Friday, global markets will face a quarterly trillion-dollar derivatives event known as quadruple witching.
The event occurs on the third Friday of March, June, September and December, when four main types of derivatives mature simultaneously. These include stock index futures, stock index options, single stock options, and single stock futures.
Because traders must close, roll over, or liquidate these positions simultaneously, trading activity often increases and price swings can intensify in traditional markets.
Exact figures for the March 2026 expiration have not yet been released, although recent events illustrate the magnitude. In March 2025, approximately $4.7 trillion in equity and index derivatives expired during the quarterly event. According to TradeStation, that session saw the highest S&P 500 trading volume of the entire year, while other witchy days also saw above-average activity.
Large maturities like this often force institutions to rebalance their portfolios, unwind hedges and adjust risk exposure in a short period. Much of the activity tends to be concentrated in the last hour of trading, when liquidity increases rapidly and volatility can increase rapidly.
This quarter’s expiration comes in an already volatile business environment. The conflict in the Middle East recently pushed oil prices to $120 a barrel, while gold fell below $4,600 and bitcoin fell below $69,000. Meanwhile, the VIX volatility index jumped above 35 last week, the highest level in a year, indicating increased stress in financial markets.
Although four-way witchcraft originates in traditional finance, it can extend to cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin is increasingly traded alongside broader risk assets, meaning sharp moves in stocks often ripple through digital markets.
Cole Kennelly, CEO of Volmex Finance, said that tomorrow’s event could drive volatility in crypto markets, noting that “quadruple witching could trigger a spike in cross-asset volatility as large derivatives positions expire. This may already be manifesting in cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin’s Volmex Implied Volatility Index (BVIV) trending higher at the event.”
How Did Bitcoin Perform in the Quadruple Witching Days in 2025?
On March 21, bitcoin was down slightly that day, but the most significant move came later, with prices bottoming out a few weeks later, around $76,000, following the market’s reaction to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.
On June 20, bitcoin fell 1.5% and continued lower, hitting a local low near $98,000 just two days later. On September 19, Bitcoin fell more than 1% on the day, but the real move unfolded the following week, with a sharp drop from $177,000 to $108,000. Then, on December 19, bitcoin finished about 3% higher, at around $85,000, although it remained on a broader decline from October highs.
While price action on the day itself tends to be relatively quiet, a consistent pattern of weakness emerges in the following days or weeks.
Even if quad-witching doesn’t increase bitcoin volatility on Friday, cryptocurrency traders have another event, specifically for digital assets, to watch out for.
Crypto derivatives face their own major quarterly expiration next week on March 27, with $13.5 billion set to expire on Deribit, where positioning points to high demand for volatility strategies rather than strong directional bets.
