By Francisco Rodrigues (All times Eastern Time unless otherwise noted)
bitcoin has stabilized above $70,000. Its relative strength is notable given the sell-off during the week, which saw it fall from over $75,000.
Most assets suffered sharp declines during the period as the conflict in Iran escalated, damaging vital energy infrastructure. A higher-than-expected US PPI figure in February compounded the effect.
Traditional havens including gold and silver also fell, while Brent crude rose above $110 a barrel due to supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Federal Reserve didn’t help. While the US central bank held interest rates steady on Wednesday, as expected, its tone turned hawkish. The effects of the conflict have dampened expectations of rate cuts and, in fact, the perceived probabilities of rate increases increase from 8% to 24% in prediction markets.
André Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise, told CoinDesk that bitcoin is at the intersection of two powerful and opposing forces, and that the scales may already be tipping in the token’s favor.
On the one hand, rising inflation expectations are favorable, Dragosch said. Historically, Bitcoin bull runs have aligned with expansions in the ISM manufacturing index, which rose sharply this year, and with rising inflation expectations.
“This combination of increased economic activity and inflation expectations is likely one of the key reasons why Bitcoin has recently managed to outperform other traditional assets such as gold and US stocks,” he said. “Bitcoin is also generally less sensitive to interest rates than gold, so it wasn’t as affected by rising bond yields.”
On the other hand, tighter financial conditions are an obstacle. Bitcoin, however, may have been acting as a canary in what Dragosch called the “macro coal mine.”
“Bitcoin appears to have already priced in much of this tightening, showing a record “macro discount” and getting ahead of the recent deterioration in forward-looking indicators,” Dragosch said.
Looking ahead, a key catalyst will continue to be improving financial conditions. That means the end of the conflict in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, even as developments in the crypto space show growing adoption. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- March 20, 8:30 am: Canada YoY PPI (was 5.4%); Monthly (previously 2.7%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 20: BitFuFu (FUFU), pre-market, $0.01
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Lightchain AI DAO is voting on a 90-day temporary team authority proposal, which grants the core team short-term operational authority to make day-to-day and strategic decisions. Voting ends on March 22.
- Unlock
- March 20 – LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 5.64% of its circulating supply worth $52.45 million.
- Token releases
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 0.29% as of 4 pm ET Thursday to $70,608.19 (24 hours: +0.69%)
- ETH is down 0.55% to $2,148.07 (24 hours: -1.14%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.34% at 2,044.85 (24 hours: unchanged)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 2 Basis Points to 2.76%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0020% (-2.1703% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.38% at 99.70
- Gold futures rise 1.58% to $4,673.60
- Silver futures rise 1.75% to $72.14
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 3.38% at 53,372.53
- Hang Seng closed down 0.88% at 25,277.32
- The FTSE 100 is down 2.16% to 10,082.61
- The Euro Stoxx 50 falls 1.71% to 5,638.54
- DJIA closed Thursday down 0.44% at 46,021.43
- The S&P 500 closed down 0.27% at 6,606.49
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.28% at 22,090.69
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.42% at 31,854.98
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.22% at 3,466.80
- The 10-year US Treasury rate rises 2 basis points to 4.28%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures down 0.52% to 6,625.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures down 0.68% to 24,412.50
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average index fell 0.43% to 46,140.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.90% (0.18%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03043 (-0.49%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 925 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $30.68
- Total fees: 2.95 BTC / $206,875
- CME Futures Open Interest: 117,190 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 15.2 oz.
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 4.72%
Technical analysis
- BTC/SPX may be showing signs of bottoming, with the RSI bouncing from oversold levels and the line maintaining its trend.
- Currently, the ratio is below the 50-week exponential moving average, which implies more limited performance until we see a break above the average.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $202.91 (+0.31%), -0.45% to $201.99 in premarket
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $128.33 (-3.40%), -2.20% at $125.51
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.05 (-2.46%), -0.71% at $20.90
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.22 (+3.36%), -0.33% at $9.19
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.14 (+0.28%), +0.28% at $14.18
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.48 (+0.80%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.83 (-0.51%), -0.31% at $9.80
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $7.73 (-4.57%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $39.10 (+0.00%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $39.60 (+3.45%), -0.98% to $39.21
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $138.24 (-1.65%), +0.54% at $138.99
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): Closed at $10.26 (+2.24%), +0.49% at $10.31
- SharpLink (SBET): closed at $7.68 (-2.41%), +1.04% to $7.76
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.07 (+0.00%), +1.87% at $1.09
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.17 (-0.85%)
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$90.2 million
- Accumulated net flows: $56.26 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$136.4 million
- Accumulated net flows: 11.8 billion dollars
- Total ETH holdings ~5.76 million
Source: Farside Investors
