bitcoin is trading near $68,250, returning to a price range dating back to early February after multiple failed attempts to convincingly break above $75,000.
The latest sell-off came on Saturday, after US President Donald Trump threatened to “destroy” Iran’s power plants unless the country opened the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.
The weekend price action led to a CME gap: the difference between the price of bitcoin when futures on the exchange end the week on Friday and when trading resumes on Sunday night. That gap would be filled if bitcoin recovers to $70,000 on Monday.
Gold and silver fell again on Monday and January’s all-time highs now appear to be confirmed as a result of speculative mania rather than a genuine safe-haven move.
Instead, the dollar index (DXY) has returned to trading above 100, driven by inflation fears and the end of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut cycle.
The altcoin market has underperformed Bitcoin since midnight UTC, with decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens ETHFI, HYPE and SKY losing around 3%, while BTC is in the black after falling on Saturday and Sunday.
Derivatives positioning
- Over $400 million in leveraged crypto futures bets have been settled in the last 24 hours. More than $280 million were long positions, the most since Feb. 25, a sign that bullish bets have taken a considerable hit due to bitcoin’s decline on Sunday.
- Open interest (OI) in futures tied to the PAXG gold token rose 4% in 24 hours as investors withdrew capital from futures on major cryptocurrencies, including BTC. Ether OI increased by just under 1%.
- On the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, gold and silver perpetual contracts are among the top 10 perpetual contracts by open interest, outperforming major tokens like XRP. Volume profiles show a similar bias for traditional commodities.
- Funding rates show a mixed picture of market sentiment. Traders appear to be chasing bearish exposure in tokens such as XRP, BNB, SOL, TRX, DOGE, and ADA, as evidenced by their negative funding rates. Meanwhile, BTC, BCH, HYPe, XMR, and LINK rates remain positive, indicating strong sentiment.
- BCH and LINK also have a positive 24-hour cumulative volume delta. This, coupled with positive funding rates, points to sustained net buying pressure, with leveraged traders positioning themselves for further upside in both tokens.
- BTC’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has rebounded to 60% from 53% on Wednesday, indicating renewed uncertainty and fear as the Iran war drags on and major banks point to a sustained oil price rally ahead.
- The Ether Volatility Index, EVIV, jumped to 84% on Sunday, the highest since early February.
- On Deribit, BTC puts are priced at a premium of eight volatility points to call options until the end of June expiration. This indicates strong demand for hedging against potential price declines.
- Block flows presented huge demand for put spreads on BTC, a bearish strategy, and ETH, a bet on volatility.
symbolic talk
- CoinDesk’s DeFi Select Index (DFX) is the worst-performing benchmark on Monday, losing 0.75% since midnight UTC, while CDMEME and SCPXC fell around 0.4%.
- Privacy tokens bucked the downtrend, with DASH, NIGHT, and XMR rising 3% to 5% in the past 24 hours. The sector performed well in late 2025, driven by improving sentiment around anonymous transactions and greater regulatory clarity.
- CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” index is at 49/100, retreating slightly from last week’s high of 53, but substantially higher than last month, when it fell to 22.
- One reason to be optimistic is the average Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is currently in “oversold” territory, suggesting that a bounce for several altcoins could be in play this week.
