With just over a week left in March, Bitcoin is on track to avoid a historic losing streak. The asset is up around 2% on the month, remaining above $68,000. However, a late pullback would see Bitcoin close six consecutive months in the red, matching the longest losing streak on record, last seen between August 2018 and January 2019.
From a technical point of view, the 200-week moving average (200WMA) remains a key level to watch. This metric, which tracks bitcoin’s long-term trend by averaging its closing price over the past 200 weeks, has historically acted as a strong support during bear markets.
In the current cycle, 200WMA sits near $59,000. Bitcoin fell as low as $60,000 in early February and has since consolidated above this level for nearly two months, suggesting continued strength at this key support. Notably, the 2022 bear market remains the only cycle in which bitcoin spent an extended period below the 200WMA, from June to December.
Beyond the USD price action, bitcoin is also starting to show relative strength against gold. It is on track to post its first positive monthly candle against gold in eight months, with the bitcoin-to-gold ratio currently around 16 ounces. Meanwhile, gold is trading near $4,200 after recently falling to $4,000, down 5% on the day. Gold is now down more than 25% from its all-time high in January, wiping $7.5 trillion in value from market capitalization.
Historically, each cycle has seen minor drops in the bitcoin-to-gold ratio from its peak. In this cycle, bitcoin fell about 71% against gold from its all-time high in December 2024. These peak-to-trough cycles have typically lasted around 400 days, suggesting that the current recession may be overstated by this ratio.
If bitcoin can hold support above the 200WMA while regaining strength against gold, it would reinforce the view that the broader uptrend remains intact.
