Bitcoin recently found support in a key on-chain metric (the average realized price for a specific year), in this case the 2023 cost base.
The average realized price in 2023 is currently around $63,700. During the local low in early February, when bitcoin fell about 50% from its October all-time high, to about $60,000, the price effectively tested and held this level as support.
This behavior reflects the previous cycle. In early 2023, when the bull run began, bitcoin experienced several small corrections and repeatedly used the realized 2023 price as support. This can be seen in March, July, and September 2023, when the price consolidated in the range of $20,000 to $26,000.
Looking at the newer cohorts, the average realized price in 2026 started the year near $90,000 and has since declined to around $77,000. With Bitcoin currently trading at just over $70,000, the average buyer of 2026 is underwater. Notably, the cost base for this cohort has also fallen below the 2024 cohort at $81,500 and the 2025 cohort at $96,400.
Zooming out further, the aggregate realized price, which represents the average cost of all coins in circulation, is currently around $54,360. Bitcoin has historically traded below this level in every major bear market, including 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2022.
So far this cycle, the lowest price for bitcoin has been around $60,000. If that level fails, it becomes the next key support to watch, with the price realized at $54,000 acting as a deeper historical floor.
