Brazil’s main stock exchange, B3, will begin offering six new derivatives contracts on April 27 that will allow investors to bet on the probability of future events, ranging from the price of bitcoin to the movements of the dollar and the Ibovespa index.
The instruments, called Event Contracts, operate in a similar framework to prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Prices vary up to 100 reais ($19), and the price of each contract reflects the estimated probability of a market outcome.
B3 contracts are regulated by the Brazilian securities authority (CVM) and are designed for professional investors, the exchange reported.
The six contracts cover mini futures and spot prices for the Ibovespa index, the US dollar and bitcoin. They are structured with fixed payouts and risks known from the beginning, like the cryptocurrency price prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Traders do not accept delivery of the underlying assets and instead settlement takes place in cash. For now, only investors with more than 10 million reais ($1.9 million) in assets or CVM certification can market the new products.
B3 Vice President of Products and Clients Luiz Masagão said the launch is part of a broader push to modernize derivatives trading in Brazil.
The exchange already offers contracts linked to central bank decisions in several countries and has closely followed the growth of predictive platforms abroad, Masagão added.
Late last year, the exchange revealed that it is working on its own tokenization platform and stablecoin, which are expected to launch this year.
The launch of B3 marks the first federally regulated prediction market in Brazil, although it enters an increasingly crowded field. Platforms such as Prévias and Palpitada have been operating domestically in a regulatory gray area, while US-based Kalshi recently partnered with XP International, Brazil’s largest brokerage, to offer event contracts linked to Brazilian economic results.
The move also comes amid a boom in the global predictions market. Nominal volume is now approaching $160 billion, according to a Dune dashboard, while unique users have surpassed the 3 million mark.
Polymarket and Kalshi dominate the space globally and account for the majority of nominal volume. Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, recently doubled down on Polymarket, raising its total commitment to nearly $2 billion.
Still, the regulatory landscape remains unstable on both sides of the equator. In Brazil, legal experts say it is unclear whether oversight of prediction markets should ultimately fall to the CVM, the Central Bank or the Ministry of Finance.
