JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said the bank is considering entering the prediction markets space, signaling growing interest from major financial institutions in a sector that has expanded rapidly in recent months, even among crypto-native companies.
“One day we may do something like this,” Dimon said on CBS on Tuesday, although he ruled out offering markets in sports or politics.
“There are a lot of things we won’t do. And obviously we have strict rules around insider information.”
Goldman Sachs (GS) has expressed similar ambitions. CEO David Solomon said during the bank’s January earnings call that the company is actively exploring this space. “I met personally with the two big prediction companies and their leaders in the last two weeks and spent a couple of hours with each to learn more about it,” he said. “We have a team of people here who are spending time with them and looking at it.”
The comments highlight how quickly the sector has evolved. Not long ago, prediction markets were a niche in finance dominated by just two credible players: Polymarket and Kalshi. Today, competition is intensifying rapidly.
Several crypto-native platforms, including Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD), have integrated prediction market trading into their offerings, expanding access to retail users and increasing overall market activity.
At the same time, early leaders continue to grow. Polymarket has secured significant partnerships and investments, including ties with Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. The company is believed to be valued at around $20 billion. Rival platform Kalshi recently reached a valuation of $22 billion following a funding round led by Coatue Management.
The two platforms take different technological approaches. Polymarket operates on blockchain infrastructure, using networks such as Polygon (POL) to record trades and settle positions through smart contracts. Users deposit stablecoins, place bets on event outcomes, and receive automatic payouts based on verified results.
Kalshi does not use blockchain technology; instead, it operates more like a traditional exchange, offering event contracts under a regulated framework with centralized order matching and settlement.
It’s not yet clear how JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs would structure their own offerings, particularly whether they would adopt blockchain-based systems or stick to traditional infrastructure.
Regulation remains a key uncertainty. The legal status of prediction markets in the United States is still evolving, especially around what types of events can be offered and how contracts are classified. Big banks are likely to wait for clearer guidance before launching products.
Earlier this month, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) took two important steps toward building a regulatory framework for prediction markets, indicating that oversight of the sector is beginning to take shape.
