Pakistan, a diplomatic pariah a year ago, has become a trusted regional partner and mediator between the United States and Iran to end the war in the Middle East, a remarkable transformation for the country.
Chief of Defense Forces (CDF) and Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir has had several meetings with President Donald Trump, including an unprecedented one-on-one lunch at the White House, as the government detained an Islamic State attacker accused of killing American troops and handed him over to the United States.
In other measures to restore the country’s credibility, its diplomats have launched a broad outreach program with world leaders, while cementing ties with China.
“Pakistan’s civil-military leadership has been on a charm offensive, primarily balancing US-China relations while seeking to employ a diversified foreign policy,” said Arsla Jawaid, global risk analyst at Control Risks. Reuters.
“All of these efforts are starting to show some signs of success.”
Since Osama bin Laden was killed by US Navy SEALs in Pakistan in 2011, ties with the United States and the West had plummeted. The imprisonment of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and accusations from Washington that Pakistan was supporting the Taliban behind the scenes during the 20-year war in Afghanistan only made matters worse.
On the economic front, Pakistan came perilously close to default until a new deal was reached with the International Monetary Fund after tough negotiations about 18 months ago.
Analysts and government officials cite two turning points in rebuilding Pakistan’s trust with Washington.
Read more: US Vice President Vance spoke to Pakistani intermediaries about the conflict with Iran
The first breakthrough came in March last year, when Pakistan helped capture a suspect linked to the 2021 Kabul airport bombing, which killed 170 Afghans and 13 US soldiers, prompting public thanks from Trump and renewed intelligence sharing.
Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United States, said cooperation was “critical” to reversing decades of mistrust.
In May, a confrontation with old enemy India reinforced the change.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Tahir Andrabi said the 90-hour conflict provided a huge boost to Pakistan’s diplomatic credentials because the country’s “military leadership showed tremendous restraint after successfully shooting down Indian fighter jets.”
Pakistan was quick to involve the United States in efforts to end the conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbors and later nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
power levers
CDF Munir’s visit to the White House, the first time a sitting US president received Pakistan’s military chief without the presence of civilian leaders, played a pivotal role.
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Government officials have said the country’s transformation has been driven by a strong civil-military alliance and the ability to juggle relations with Gulf countries as well as the United States and China.
“If there is one factor that has driven the expansion of diplomatic opportunities for Pakistan, it is the trust and symbiosis between the field marshal and the prime minister,” said Mosharraf Zaidi, spokesman for Prime Minister Shehbaz.Reuters.
Both Zaidi and Andrabi highlighted diplomatic initiatives from their offices and a flurry of almost daily meetings and phone calls with world leaders.
On Sunday, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar hosted his counterparts from Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and Egypt for talks focused on ending the war in Iran.
“Due to Dar’s frequent interactions with these foreign ministers, they are able to share intimate remarks as well as a solemn moment,” Andrabi said.
Favorite quarterback
Since then, ties with Washington have deepened thanks to frequent contacts between Pakistan’s civil and military leaders and the White House.
CDF Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz have held talks with the United States that included investment opportunities, a crypto deal with a company linked to the Trump family and security in the Middle East, anchoring Pakistan’s renewal with a mix of trade deals and geopolitical alliances.
CDF Munir, whom Trump has called his “favorite quarterback,” was the only military chief serving at the World Economic Forum in Davos this year. Sources said he had further interactions with Trump there and had spoken with Vice President JD Vance several times since the war with Iran began.
Vance communicated with Pakistani intermediaries about the conflict with Iran on Tuesday, according to a source briefed on the matter, making it clear that Trump was open to a ceasefire if certain demands were met.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Shehbaz has held repeated meetings with Trump, as well as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Pakistan signed a mutual defense agreement with Saudi Arabia last year.
Heartburn in India
However, Pakistan’s rise on the international stage is causing heartburn in India, which has typically had the higher diplomatic profile of the two rivals. Its opposition has questioned the government’s hands-off approach to the Middle East war, and analysts say Islamabad’s rise risks leaving New Delhi on the sidelines of regional diplomacy.
Also read: Pakistan signals talks between Iran and US in ‘coming days’
“I have been calling for almost three weeks for India to take a leadership position, leveraging its good relations with both sides in a peace initiative,” said opposition lawmaker Shashi Tharoor. “Now apparently Pakistan, Egypt and Turkiye have done it. Good luck to them… but India doesn’t get any credit while Pakistan holds peace talks.”
However, the economy remains stagnant and analysts say it risks being dragged into war because of the defense pact with Saudi Arabia.
Islamabad is also entangled in its own conflict with Afghanistan, which emerged days before the United States and Israel launched attacks on Tehran.
Pakistan “has to continue to look inward to reinforce its own pillars of national power, especially its economy,” said Uzair Yunus of strategic advisory firm The Asia Group.
“It also needs to build an integrated defense industrial complex in partnership with Saudi Arabia and Turkiye.”
Islamabad would need a long-term strategy to balance ties with Iran, its defense partnership with Riyadh and relations with Washington amid an unpredictable and possibly protracted conflict, Control Risks’ Jawaid said.
“Civilian and military leaders will have to be very careful about the role and extent of Pakistan’s involvement. Overstating the mediator’s letter could prove more damaging if not managed astutely.”
