Bitcoin is trading choppy around $66,600 as the extended holiday weekend sidelines potential buyers and gives bears greater control over the price action.
With CME and ETF futures flows set to halt on Good Friday, the market is heading into a liquidity gap just as its most reliable source of support is already weakening.
Bitcoin’s $65,000 support is starting to look fragile as the market’s most active buyers turn out to be the most macro-dependent. In a recent report, CryptoQuant data shows apparent 30-day demand of about -63,000 BTC, even as corporate and ETF purchases rise to multi-month highs, while Singapore-based market maker Enflux told CoinDesk in a note that the price floor is “partly supported by rate cut expectations.”
ETF purchases rose to around 50,000 BTC in the last 30 days, the highest level since October 2025, while Strategy accumulated around 44,000 BTC during the same period. However, overall demand remained negative and sales from other entrants overwhelmed those entries.
The pressure is most visible among large holders, CryptoQuant wrote in a recent report. Wallets with between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have moved to net distribution, with their one-year balance change falling to approximately negative 188,000 BTC from positive 200,000 BTC at the peak of the 2024 cycle. Medium holders have also sharply slowed accumulation, while the Coinbase premium has remained negative, indicating weak spot demand in the United States.
The result is a market where growing institutional activity does not translate into greater price support. As more capital moves into ETF wrappers and regulated futures markets, bitcoin is increasingly priced through macro-sensitive positioning, such as hedging and allocation changes, rather than broad-based spot accumulation.
That positioning is now being tested by inflation data, Enflux wrote. The ISM prices paid index jumped to 78.3 in March, its highest level since June 2022, undermining expectations of near-term rate cuts. Enflux said the appreciation has already started to be reflected in flows, with $296 million in net outflows from ETFs during the week of March 24 and moderate inflows in early April.
The long weekend removes a key stabilizer. With CME closed and ETF creation and redemption paused, the institutional supply that has increasingly anchored the price of bitcoin will be largely absent, leaving trading in spot markets where selling pressure has been most persistent.
CryptoQuant said any relief rally could face resistance between about $71,500 and $81,200, levels that have limited previous bounces in the current bear market structure.
The broader test comes with US inflation data for April 9. If the March core PCE exceeds February’s 3.1%, rate cut expectations could fade further, strengthening the bearish case on bitcoin.
