Days of bearish positioning unraveled in about two hours on Tuesday night as bitcoin surpassed $72,700 after Trump confirmed a two-week ceasefire with Iran via Truth Social just before his 8 p.m. ET deadline.
The move triggered $595 million in total cryptocurrency liquidations among 118,489 traders, according to data from CoinGlass.
Short positions accounted for $427 million versus $168 million in long positions, a ratio of more than 2.5 to 1 that reflects how strongly positioned the market was for further declines heading into the deadline.
The largest single liquidation was an $11.79 million short of BTC-USDT on Binance. Bitcoin accounted for $245 million in total liquidations, ether followed with $126 million, and tokenized Brent oil futures on Hyperliquid added $33 million as crude oil crashed more than 10%, with another $42 million in CL (WTI crude) contracts.
Oil, which has been among the top crypto assets sold off during the war, moved to the other side of the trade as Brent fell to around $99 and WTI fell to around $95.
The 12-hour window was where the real damage was concentrated. Of the $595 million total, $508 million was liquidated in just 12 hours, with shorts taking $398 million of that amount, the most aggressive short squeeze since March 4, when bitcoin rallied in the first round of ceasefire speculation.
Solana’s SOL added $19.6 million in liquidations, ZEC took in $13.4 million, and XRP contributed smaller amounts along with a long tail of altcoins. Even tokenized silver and gold positions were caught in easing as the commodities complex repriced the elimination of the war premium.
The ceasefire itself is conditional.
Trump called it a “double-sided ceasefire” and said the United States had “already met and exceeded all military objectives.” Iran confirmed the suspension but hedged in the Strait of Hormuz, saying the tankers could transit for two weeks “through coordination with Iran’s armed forces and with due consideration to technical limitations.”
To contextualize how extreme the positioning had become, the Fear and Greed Index stood at 8 on Sunday, continuing with readings below 10 throughout the conflict. Elsewhere, Santiment data showed five bearish social media posts for every four bullish ones. Every sentiment and positioning indicator pointed in one direction. The ceasefire violently pushed the market into the other.
Bitcoin’s move to $72,700 puts it at the top of the $65,000 to $73,000 range that has contained all rallies and selling since the war began.
Whether this breaks the range or becomes another scam depends on what “two weeks” becomes.
