Sentiment in bitcoin The market appears to have turned around after a long time, suggesting that investors are positioning themselves for a possible rally to $80,000.
On Deribit, which represents a majority share of the multi-trillion-dollar global crypto options market, the $80,000 call option (a derivatives bet that prices will rise beyond that level) has become the most popular trade. It has surpassed the $60,000 put option, which dominated positioning in recent months as prices fell.
As of this writing, open interest on the $80,000 strike stands at more than $1.6 billion, with each contract representing one bitcoin, according to data from Deribit. The $60,000 put option has open interest of $1.41 billion.
BTC has already recovered above $70,000 from early week lows near $67,000, supported in part by a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran that affected oil prices. Analysts say continued weakness in oil could help ease concerns about inflation, potentially strengthening the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts, a backdrop that tends to support risk assets including bitcoin.
On-chain data offers some additional support to the bull case.
“During the second week of 2026 alone, Bitcoin wallets containing more than 10,000 BTC have seen net inflows. This points to whale accumulation rather than ETF-driven demand. If it holds, it increases the likelihood of a supply squeeze that could push Bitcoin towards the $75,000 to $80,000 range,” said Paul Howard, senior director at crypto liquidity provider Wincent.
On the other hand, 21Shares analysts see room for further upside, with a possible move towards $100,000 by the end of June under favorable conditions.
“Over the past month, we have seen over $1.5 billion in net inflows into BTC ETFs, along with an increase in holdings by larger investors of around 6% since the beginning of the year, pointing to continued demand from more sophisticated participants,” said Matt Mena, cryptocurrency research strategist at 21Shares. “If geopolitical tensions subside and regulatory clarity improves, a move towards $100,000 by the end of the second quarter cannot be ruled out.”
Still, risks remain. The ceasefire is fragile and any further escalation could send oil prices rising again, which could reduce risk appetite and limit bitcoin’s gains.
US Q4 GDP data will be released later today. While the retrospective release may have limited immediate impact, a significant surprise in either direction could still trigger near-term volatility. Stay alert!
What is trend?
- Trump Vows to Keep US Troops in Persian Gulf Ahead of Iran Talks (Bloomberg): As both sides accused each other of violating the truce, Trump vowed to keep U.S. troops in the Persian Gulf ahead of talks with Iran that are planned to cement a fragile ceasefire.
- Everyone is waiting for US inflation numbers, but bitcoin traders couldn’t care less (CoinDesk) – The latest US inflation report for March, due out on Friday, is seen by several observers as a key indicator, given the backdrop of the Iran war and its inflationary impact. However, the latest BTC market activity shows that traders couldn’t care less.
- ‘NATO is in grave danger after war with Iran,’ says former US ambassador to NATO (euronews): Former US ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder said Trump’s repeated threats to withdraw from NATO and other worrying confrontations have created the “worst crisis” the alliance has ever faced.
- Inflation data, Iran talk: What to watch for the rest of the week (The Wall Street Journal): After Wednesday’s big stock market rally, investors will be watching to see if the U.S.-Iran ceasefire holds and will await updates to inflation data, fourth-quarter GDP estimates and new data on consumer confidence.
Today’s sign
The chart shows daily bitcoin price swings in candlestick format since October 2025. It also has a yellow trend line drawn from the all-time high of over $126,000 in October that represents the brutal bear market.
At the time of writing, BTC price was trading near that trendline resistance, a decisive level.
A decisive break above the trend line (ideally with strong volume and sustained follow-through) would mean that the downtrend has likely changed course. This could open the door to a broader uptrend reversal, with room for an initial move towards the $75,000 to $80,000 region, and potentially further if momentum picks up.
On the other hand, a rejection at the trend line would reinforce it as a valid resistance level, suggesting the continuation of the bear market. This would increase the risk of another pullback towards recent support levels, potentially to $65,000 or lower.
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto markets today . For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
