Cryptocurrency trading has cooled into early 2026 and Wall Street analysts are rushing to adjust their forecasts before companies report their first-quarter earnings.
New research from Barclays and Oppenheimer shows that several analysts are reaching similar conclusions, a few weeks into the second quarter. Expectations are falling across the sector as trading volumes weaken and previous projections appear overly optimistic.
Barclays took the most direct step, downgrading Coinbase (COIN) and warning that “global cryptocurrency trading activity has declined to a level not seen since late 2023.” The bank added that “absent a resurgence in cryptocurrency trading activity in the near term, we see profitability under pressure at Coinbase.”
The slowdown is visible in the data. Coinbase’s March trading volume marked “the lowest volume month since September 2024,” Barclays wrote, and April “shows no signs of improvement.” For the first quarter, the bank estimates that volumes fell approximately 30% from the previous quarter.
Coinbase and other exchanges charge fees for each transaction they facilitate, meaning lower volumes will generate less revenue.
The mechanics are simple. When markets calm down, many traders take a step back. A retail user who once traded weekly during a rally may stop completely when prices stabilize. Multiply that behavior across millions of accounts and trading volumes drop quickly.
This is important because transaction fees are still the main revenue generator for most crypto platforms. Barclays underlined this risk, saying its forecast for Coinbase’s adjusted EBITDA is about 24% lower than the Street, largely driven by weaker retail and spot trading activity.
Cryptocurrency prices have retreated in the first quarter, and the average price of major tokens has fallen sharply from quarter to quarter. Bitcoin lost more than 22% of its value in the first quarter of this year, while ether fell 29%.
Oppenheimer took a similar tone, but maintained a more optimistic stance on Coinbase. The firm said it is cutting its forecasts due to falling cryptocurrency prices and lower trading activity in the first quarter, driven in part by broader economic uncertainty. He also noted that Wall Street’s current estimates still do not fully reflect the drop in trading volumes during that period.
That delay is now being corrected.
Across the industry, analysts are revising models downward to reflect a calmer market.
Oppenheimer lowered his Coinbase volume estimate to $211 billion for the quarter, down from $244 billion previously, and now expects total revenue of $1.48 billion, below previous forecasts and consensus.
The reset is not limited to Coinbase. Oppenheimer said Circle (CRCL) continues to expand the USDC stablecoin network, with stablecoin market capitalization and USDC transfer volume increasing by approximately 1% and 12% quarter over quarter, respectively.
Crypto platform Bullish (BLSH), which owns CoinDesk, reported “strong platform activity” tied to volatility in February, although spot volumes still fell short of expectations. As a result, Rosenblatt downgraded BLSH earlier this week, while Compass Point downgraded CRCL to “neutral” and “sell,” respectively.
Even these pockets of strength highlight a broader problem: the core business of cryptocurrency trading is slowing.
Efforts are being made to diversify revenue streams, but it may take time to offset the slowdown. Coinbase’s push to become what it calls an “everything exchange” includes derivatives, tokenized assets and new marketplaces. Barclays was skeptical, writing that the strategy “will probably take a long time to bear fruit” and that it sees “little ‘right to win’ in new asset classes like stocks.”
Stablecoins, often seen as a more stable source of income, also face uncertainty. Barclays noted the ongoing debate in Washington over regulation and noted that the status of stablecoin rewards “remains in doubt.” At the same time, Oppenheimer sees near-term support in new use cases and says that “increased prediction market activity could support USDC growth.”
Still, those areas remain secondary to trade.
The broader conclusion is that analysts are acting preventatively. With earnings season approaching, companies are lowering their estimates now so as not to risk being caught off guard by weak results later.
Coinbase reports second quarter earnings on May 7 and bullish reports on April 23. Circle has not yet announced a date.
