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When Korn’s “Blind” plays over the Petco Park speakers in the top of the ninth inning, the San Diego Padres’ opponent knows the game is over because Mason Miller is entering the game.
The lights around the stadium flicker on and off as the music plays, moments before Miller turns off the lights on the unfortunate batters who have to face him.
The 27-year-old Pittsburgh native has been a different kind of dominant so far this season. In 11 games, he is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, recording eight saves in 11.1 innings pitched. He has allowed just four baserunners to start the season, giving up just two singles and two walks.
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San Diego Padres reliever Mason Miller throws out a pitch during the ninth inning against the Seattle Mariners at Petco Park in San Diego, California, on April 16, 2026. (David Frerker/Image Images)
What makes Miller’s goalless start to the season even more impressive? He has faced 38 batters and struck out 27 of them, which is an extraordinary strikeout rate of 71.1%. He averages 21.4 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.
However, even if Miller maintains his video game-style start to the season, does he have a realistic shot at winning the Cy Young? Very unlikely.
The Padres closer currently has the fifth-lowest odds to win the NL Cy Young, according to Draftkings.
- Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates – +260
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Los Angeles Dodgers – +380
- Christopher Sánchez of the Philadelphia Phillies – +550
- Sale of Chris from the Atlanta Braves – +950
- Miller – +1500
So what does Miller have to do to have a chance to win the NL Cy Young? Something not seen before.
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San Diego Padres reliever Mason Miller celebrates with catcher Luis Campusano after defeating the Seattle Mariners at Petco Park in San Diego, California, on April 16, 2026. (David Frerker/Image Images)
First, let’s take a look at the nine previous relievers who won the Cy Young Award.
Mike Marshall, Dodgers, 1974
Sparky Lyle, New York Yankees, 1977
Bruce Sutter, Chicago Cubs, 1979
Rollie Fingers, Milwaukee Brewers, 1981
Willie Hernandez, Detroit Tigers, 1984
Steve Bedrosian, Philadelphia Phillies, 1987
Mark Davis, Fathers, 1989
Dennis Eckersley, for the then Oakland Athletics, 1992
Eric Gagné, Dodgers, 2003
We can safely rule out Marshall (208 innings pitched), Lyle (137 innings pitched), Sutter (101.1 innings pitched) and Hernandez (140.1 innings pitched) as comparisons because Miller won’t pitch as many innings this season. Miller is on pace to pitch approximately 81 innings this season.
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San Diego Padres reliever Mason Miller reacts after defeating the Los Angeles Angels in the bottom of the ninth inning in Anaheim, California, on April 18, 2026. (Caroline Brehman/AP Photo)
Miller’s 81 projected innings are in line with those of the other five relievers. Fingers pitched 78 innings, Bedrosian pitched 89, Davis pitched 92.2, Eckersley pitched 80 and Gagne pitched 82.1.
Bedrosian had a 2.83 ERA in his year, but Miller will have to pitch better than that to win the award. Paul Skenes, who won the 2025 National League Cy Young, was 10-10 with a 1.97 ERA in 187.2 innings pitched in 32 starts.
Skenes, the favorite as of this writing, currently has a 3-1 record in five starts with a 3.27 ERA in 22 innings pitched. His ERA is inflated because he allowed five runs and only recorded two outs against the New York Mets on opening day. In the four starts since then, he has allowed just three runs.
So let’s look further into the cases of Davis, Eckersley, and Gagné.
Davis, in 62 games, was 4-3, 44 saves and a 1.85 ERA with 92 strikeouts in 92.2 innings.
Eckersley, in 69 games, was 7-1, with 51 saves and a 1.91 ERA with 93 strikeouts in 80 innings.
Gagné, in 77 games, was 2-3 with 55 saves and a 1.20 ERA with 137 strikeouts in 82.1 innings pitched.
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San Diego Padres reliever Mason Miller reacts after pitching in the ninth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park in San Diego, California, on April 9, 2026. (Denis Poroy/Imagn Images)
All of those seasons are amazing, but if they happened in 2026, they probably wouldn’t win the Cy Young. Baseball has changed too much since they won.
The two main differences between eras are the innings in which starters pitch and the number of elite relievers in the current game.
In 2003, 20 pitchers pitched more than 200 innings. Last season, only four pitchers pitched more than 200 innings, making starters who are a) capable of pitching between 185 and 200 innings and b) with a high one and low two ERA more valuable today than they were then.
Combine that with more relievers coming out of the bullpen firing 100+ mph fastballs with off-speed finishes, and Miller isn’t an outlier like he would have been 25 years ago. No reliever is as dominant as he is this season, but many aren’t far off.
St. Louis Cardinals closer Riley O’Brien has a 0.00 ERA in 12 games with six saves in 12.1 innings pitched with 14 strikeouts.
Voters aren’t as interested in a closer dominating today as they were two or three decades ago, when there weren’t many people who did.
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San Diego Padres reliever Mason Miller throws out a pitch during the ninth inning against the Seattle Mariners at Petco Park in San Diego, California, on April 16, 2026. (David Frerker/Image Images)
Unfortunately for Miller, he could become another star closer who becomes a victim of a new era of baseball in Cy Young voting.
Since 2016, only two relievers have finished higher than fourth in Cy Young voting: Baltimore Orioles relief ace Zach Britton (fourth) and Cleveland Guardians star closer Emmanuel Clase (third).
In 2016, Britton, in 69 games, went 2-1 with a 0.54 ERA with 47 saves, striking out 74 batters in 67 innings. An astonishing 79% of the balls put into play against him were ground balls. However, despite that, he finished fourth.
Boston Red Sox starter Rick Porcello won the Cy Young that season. He was 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA in 223 innings pitched.
In 2024, Clase, in 74 games, had a 0.61 ERA with 47 saves and struck out 66 batters in 74.1 innings.
Detroit Tigers starter Tarik Skubal won the Cy Young that season. He was 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA in 192 innings. Kansas City Royals starter Seth Lugo finished second, going 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA in 206.2 innings pitched.
Reliever dominance is not valued the same in today’s game as it was then.
Aroldis Chapman had a 1.17 ERA and 32 saves for the Boston Red Sox last season in 67 games and finished in seventh place.
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San Diego Padres pitcher Mason Miller throws against a Colorado Rockies batter during the ninth inning of a baseball game in San Diego, California, on April 9, 2026. (Gregory Bull/AP Photo)
This isn’t to say Miller can’t win the award, but he has a significant uphill climb.
While he’s not likely to strike out 71.1% of the batters he faces throughout the season, and will eventually allow some runs, he might have to strike out batters at a historic rate while also leading the National League in saves, to keep voters’ attention all season long.
This isn’t to say that voters are blind to dominant seasons by relievers over the past decade, but recent history shows that hitters might be more likely to get on base against Miller than Miller is to win the Cy Young Award.
