Bitcoin is coming out of the Iran headline cut.
Bitcoin traded at $77,541 on Wednesday morning, up 2.2% over 24 hours and 4.3% on the week, after Trump said he would extend the ceasefire in Iran indefinitely and Strategy revealed the purchase of 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion. Ether rose 2.1% to $2,366, BNB rose 1.3% to $640 and Solana gained 1.8% to $87. The only red in the top 10 was a 0.1% drop in stablecoins and Tron.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.6% after Trump’s extension, although underlying benchmarks closed lower on Tuesday as talks briefly faltered. Brent crude oil was around $98 a barrel. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7% as investors weighed the duration of the conflict in the Middle East.
Trump blamed the failure of the negotiations on what he called a “severely fractured” leadership structure in Tehran, and said the United States would postpone further attacks while maintaining its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Strategy’s purchase is the company’s largest bitcoin purchase since November 2024. The acquisition of 34,164 BTC at an average of $74,395 per coin brings the company’s holdings to 815,061 BTC, purchased for $61.6 billion at an average cost of $75,527. With bitcoin at $77,541, the position is now making modest gains for the first time in months.
Spot reverses the movement. Global crypto funds raised $1.4 billion last week according to CoinShares, the strongest week of inflows since mid-January. Bitcoin took $1.12 billion, Ethereum $328 million, Chainlink $5 million, and Sui $2 million. XRP recorded outflows of $56 million and Solana $2 million, despite both trading higher in price.
Two structural signals point in the same direction. Bitcoin now remains above short-term holders’ realized price at around $69,400 per Darkfost analyst, the level at which recent buyers are banking on gains rather than losses, historically reducing the odds of a cascading liquidation if sentiment reverses.
Separately, a Nomura survey found that 65% of Japanese institutional investors now hold bitcoin to diversify their portfolio, 31% view the market’s prospects positively, and the majority plan allocations of 2% to 5% over the next three years.
Whether Bitcoin can hold $77,000 during the European session depends on how markets value the extension of the ceasefire in the face of continued Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
A clear break above $80,000 would confirm that the 46-day funding rate compression is turning into a short squeeze. A reversal below $75,000 would mean that the extension is already priced in and the rally needs a new catalyst.
