bitcoin hasn’t bottomed yet, and a new all-time high is unlikely to be reached this year, said Michael Terpin, an early bitcoin investor and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich.
“Before a bull market can be called for bitcoin, the price must break back above $100,000 and no nearby support has manifested,” according to Terpin, who said the bottom will be seen at $57,000 sometime in October.
“Despite a double-digit gain so far in April, we are still in a bitcoin downturn.”
Terpin is often called “the godfather of cryptocurrencies” for his involvement in the industry around 2013, when the digital asset sector was still small and somewhat misunderstood by the mainstream. Among his many ventures, Terpin founded Transform Group, one of the first public relations firms focused on blockchain companies, CoinAgenda, one of the first conferences in the space, and BitAngels, a group of crypto angel investors.
His bearish view for this cycle contrasts with the consensus among analysts that the February low around $60,000 marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull run. Most of these bullish analysts cited new capital inflows into US-listed spot ETFs and the token’s resilience during the Iran conflict and rising oil price as part of their outlook.
In an interview with CoinDesk, Terpin said that during Asian trading hours on Monday, “the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected, with the high price of oil as a factor.” He explained that this is typical at this stage of the bitcoin cycle, with lower highs rejected until the final capitulation.
While Jason Fernandes, market analyst and co-founder of AdLunam, agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not yet been reached, he disagrees with the timeline, adding that the market may not have fully capitulated yet. Capitulation is a phase where long-term holders exit in large numbers, indicating a spike in selling pressure.
“Terpin makes a reasonable case for a bottom in the post-cycle, but I don’t think Bitcoin has completely capitulated yet,” Fernandes said. “Historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of both speculative leverage and macroeconomic uncertainty, and we are definitely not there yet.”
Terpin insisted that the fundamentals point more toward a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from the bottom of each cycle.
“That indicates around $57,000,” he said, predicting it will happen sometime in October, roughly the same timeline as last year when BTC first fell below $100,000, followed by the Oct. 10 crash, when $19 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out in the largest single-day event on record.
Fernandes added that broader macroeconomic conditions could continue to weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin.
“Liquidity conditions remain tight and overall risk assets are still adjusting to a higher rate environment for longer,” he said. “Until we see a more decisive shift in monetary policy or a true disaster in crypto markets, downside volatility remains likely.”
“Too bearish”
The author and entrepreneur also said that bitcoin will not reach an all-time high (ATH) this year.
However, Mati Greenspan, cryptocurrency market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, disagrees.
“While I hesitate to disagree with the ‘Crypto Godfather,’ I find his opinion too pessimistic,” Greenspan said. “We still have plenty of room to run this year, given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest, a new all-time high (ATH) certainly seems plausible.”
AdLunam’s Fernandes also said market sentiment has not yet reached levels typically associated with cycle lows.
“Sentiment has not reached the kind of extreme pessimism that typically marks cycle lows,” he said. “To me, that means we may still need one more step down, whether or not it aligns exactly with the $57,000 to $59,000 range, before a sustainable base is formed.”
Regarding Terpin’s $100,000 level, Fernandes said it serves more as a psychological signal than a strict technical threshold.
“A true bull market is defined by higher structural highs and strong capital inflows, not just a single price level,” he said. “That said, the psychological effects of reaching $100,000 could trigger exactly that behavior,” Fernandes added.
