bitcoin is on the defensive as April draws to a close, although seasonal trends suggest any pullback may prove short-lived, potentially paving the way for a fresh move higher in the coming weeks.
Data dating back to 2013 shows that May tends to be a bullish month for the largest cryptocurrency, with gains in seven of the last 13 years. While the average return of around 8% is less impressive than stronger months like October and November, it still points to a positive bias.
Following April’s roughly 10% gain, the seasonal pattern suggests the broader uptrend could remain intact. The outlook is supported by similar bullish seasonality in the S&P 500, which is already hovering around record levels.
Consecutive monthly net inflows into US-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) indicate strong institutional demand and support the bullish case. These ETFs have raised more than $1.8 billion this month, following $1.32 billion in March.
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Still, traders should keep an eye on bond markets, where rising yields pose a headwind for risk assets.
“Bitcoin’s failure to hold above $78,000 and subsequent pullback towards $75,000 suggests the market is digesting the ‘higher for longer’ signal,” Jake Kennis, research analyst at Nansen, said in an email. “In the absence of a liquidity catalyst, it appears to be capped rather than bracing for a breakout, with macro headwinds limiting near-term upside despite a near-flat performance over 14 days (+0.7%).”
The other risk is a global economic explosion. Several observers, including energy analyst Anas Alhajji, warned that the negative impact of the Iran war and energy market disruption could sink the global economy in May.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, suggested the same in a report to his clients on Thursday.
“In May the delay ends and the real economy begins to pay the bill,” he said. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trend?
Today’s sign
The chart shows bitcoin price swings in candlestick format during 2026 and 2021-22. The charts show two lines: the red one represents the average price over 50 days and the white one shows the average over 100 days.
As of today, the 50-day average appears to be on the verge of surpassing the 100-day average. Chart analysts refer to this as a bullish crossover, a sign that short-term momentum is strengthening relative to the medium-term trend and may point to further gains if it holds.
Therefore, the imminent crossover suggests that more BTC price gains are ahead. That said, the indicator has a mixed track record, particularly during bear markets. For example, a similar bullish crossover occurred in March 2022, as the chart on the right shows. But it ended up trapping bulls on the wrong side of the market, as prices fell deeper in the following weeks.
