ISLAMABAD:
Pakistan’s inflation is expected to rise slightly in April, with the Finance Ministry projecting it in the range of 8-9%, as supply chain disruptions and global uncertainty continue to put pressure on prices despite signs of macroeconomic stability.
In its April 2026 Monthly Economic Outlook and Update, the ministry warned that inflationary pressures were being largely driven by supply-side constraints, even as the overall economy remained on a stable footing.
The report noted that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, had increased uncertainty around the macroeconomic outlook.
The ministry said inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, was expected to rise from 7.3% in March to 8-9% in April. “External demand may remain favorable in some markets, but the balance of risks becomes less favorable than in a pre-war environment,” the report states.
At the same time, the report highlighted the continued resilience of key economic indicators. The overall primary surplus during the first eight months of the current fiscal year stood at 3.3% of GDP (Rs 4,319 trillion), compared with 3% (Rs 3,452 trillion) in the same period last year.
