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With all the playoff basketball, I seem to have completely forgotten about baseball. However, that is not the case. I’ve still been monitoring it and we’ve raised some money on the few bets I’ve placed on the game lately. Today, I have a very in-depth look at the game between the Reds and Pirates taking place in Pittsburgh.
The Reds are one of the best teams in baseball, which isn’t exactly something I expected to write about this season. They made the playoffs last year, but considering their lack of offseason moves, I just didn’t expect them to be great.
What’s probably most surprising about the Reds is how good they have been on the road this season. Last year there weren’t really any good visiting teams. Those who were above .500, with the exception of the Astros, made the postseason.
A Cincinnati Reds cap with a special logo is seen during a game against the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio on July 3, 2021. Cincinnati defeated Chicago 3-2. (Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)
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Today, the Reds look to maintain that success with Rhett Lowder on the hill. For the year, Lowder is 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He has made six starts this year, exactly half of them home and away. He has an ERA one run lower on the road than at home, allowing five earned runs in 17.1 innings. Four of those runs came in a game against the Marlins. The Pirates are just 2-for-11 against Lowder in their careers.
The Pirates are better than last year, but they’re not exactly a successful club right now. They’re hovering around .500 for the season, which is pretty much what they did last year. The team still needs to learn how to hit, but they are doing better than last year.
They lost five straight games coming into this series, losing one to the Brewers and four to the Cardinals. Maybe it was just a bad streak, or maybe it’s a sign of things to come. In those games, they allowed 35 runs and scored 18. That’s an average of seven allowed and 3.6 runs scored.
Cincinnati Reds starter Rhett Lowder pitches against the Detroit Tigers in the first inning at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, on April 26, 2026. (Katie Stratman/Image Images)
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Carmen Mlodzinski tries to get the Pirates back on track. For the year, he is 1-2 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He has been substantially better at home, but most of his opportunities have come away from home. He’s pitching to a 1.69 ERA and allowed just two earned runs in 10.2 innings. In his only home start, he went six scoreless innings and allowed two hits and two walks. In his history, he has allowed just three hits in 27 at-bats against the Reds.
We have two starters today who are in better situations for themselves. Mlodzinski has been better at home and Lowder better away from home. These are still small samples, but it is a bit encouraging. The way the Pirates have been bleeding runs makes me worry that the under will run out. The Reds have been a little unbalanced with scoring and runs allowed.
Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Carmen Mlodzinski throws a pitch during a game against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, on April 21, 2026. (Jerome Miron/Imagn Images)
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In this particular situation, I think it makes more sense to back the under. Both teams have been playing higher scoring games right now, but with these two pitchers, we should see fewer runs.
For more information on sports betting and gambling, follow David on X/Twitter: @futuroprez2024
