A year away from the May 2025 war between India and Pakistan, the remarkable air war has turned out to be a watershed event that will continue to shape the future course of global policy towards South Asia.
The failure of the Indian narrative in the face of Pakistan’s world-acclaimed air dominance has shifted the global posture in favor of Pakistan. On the diplomatic front, states expressed caution over escalation in the region with nuclear weapons. During the escalation period, Turkiye expressed support for Pakistan and China condemned Indian aggression. Israel was the only state that showed explicit support for Indian aggression. Russia, Japan, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, France, the United Kingdom and the United States called for restraint. In the long term, the air war has changed the military, strategic and economic policies of regional and global players towards the region, and the strategic position of India and Pakistan.
From a military point of view, the peculiar dynamics of the conflict attracted significant global attention. Military strategists drew lessons from the conflict about air doctrine. The Indian Air Force (IAF) had a double preliminary advantage: firstly, it shaped the course of escalation to its own advantage as an offensive player and secondly, it had a numerical advantage. However, the surprising retaliation by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), despite being dragged into the conflict, neutralized the Indian advantage. Both states also turned to drone technology for the first time in decades of rivalry. Military strategists have highlighted the important role of anti-drone technologies in the future of air warfare.
Similarly, on the strategic front, the May 2025 air war demonstrated that the nature of conflict has evolved under the nuclear umbrella. India’s propensity to intensify its efforts on the air front has raised questions on nuclear deterrence, while the PAF’s apt response has highlighted the relevance of conventional deterrence even under the nuclear umbrella. Beyond conventional fronts, narrative propagation has further complicated strategic calculus, as the role of successful narrative projection during conflict has also attracted strategic attention afterwards.
While the Indian media went to great lengths to propagate the false narrative, aligned with the BJP’s anti-Pakistan jingoism, Pakistan’s ISPR provided credible media coverage as well as evidence-based reporting on the state of the conflict. Overall, independent sources verified the facts presented by Pakistan and determined that narrative warfare based on misinformation cannot support a transparent and fact-based official narrative.
Multiple layers of the conflict have drawn strategic calculations in the aftermath. First, the conflict has also been framed in the matrix of great power politics between the United States and China. Victory in the air war has brought Pakistan relative strategic autonomy, allowing it to balance its regional and global foreign policy instead of resorting to field politics. Second, the success or failure of technologies in the conflict attracted a lot of attention. The PAF’s perfect performance highlighted the efficiency of the Chinese J-10 C jets, while the IAF’s misadventure raised concerns about the French Rafale jets.
Military and strategic calculations have also impacted the economics of defense procurement. The PAF’s perfect performance marked the successful debut of Chinese fighter jets in a combat situation. The tide subsequently turned in China’s favor as Chengdu Aircraft Corporation posted sales of $7.6 billion due to increases in sales of J-10C fighter jets. Demand for drones, stealth aircraft and electronic warfare systems has also increased.
In short, Pakistan has emerged victorious from the Indian misadventure in the region. The lasting repercussions of the India-Pakistan air clash have tilted the regional strategic balance in favor of Pakistan.
Over the past decade, India has developed a pattern of exploiting nationalist military escalation as a tool for domestic election campaigns. However, the political cost inflicted by the May 2025 air war, in addition to the economic cost, is likely to demand a thorough recalibration by India to demarcate domestic politics from future military misadventures.
The author is a research assistant at the Center for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS), Islamabad. She can be contacted at: [email protected]
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of PakGazette.tv.
Originally published in The News
