The cryptocurrency bear market is likely over, arguing that a new cycle driven by tokenization and AI-powered financial services is beginning to take shape, said Tom Lee, president of Bitmine (BMNR) and co-founder of Fundstrat.
Speaking at Consensus 2026 in Miami on Thursday, Lee noted the importance of bitcoin. The recent strength is a historic sign that the market is leaving behind the bearish trend that saw prices fall from $126,000 in October to $60,000 in February.
After positive monthly returns in March and April, BTC is up about 5% in May so far, which would be the third consecutive positive monthly returns.
“You’ve never been in a bear market if Bitcoin closes three months in a row,” Lee said. “If bitcoin closes above $76,000 this month, the bear market will definitely be over.”
The CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index closed April at $76,300, while the asset is currently trading just below $80,000.
Lee said investors remain psychologically anchored to the last cryptocurrency crisis and are underestimating the strength of the current rebound. He also pointed to bullish technical signals from veteran trader John Bollinger, who recently said his trend models had turned positive on bitcoin.
Adding to the bullish narrative, Lee noted that software stocks — a sector that took a hit amid concerns that AI would disrupt its business model and Fundstrat recently upgraded — have historically traded in close correlation with bitcoin. Since tensions between the United States and Iran rose, Lee added, crypto assets have outperformed most traditional markets, with ether (ETH) leading the gains.
Tokenization and AI agents drive the next cycle
Two megatrends that are revolutionizing finance are driving the next cryptocurrency bull market: all assets migrating to the chain, called tokenization, and artificial intelligence (AI) agents using blockchain rails.
Lee argued that AI agents will need money to move value autonomously and will increasingly rely on blockchain networks and tokenized financial systems to do so.
He pointed to the adoption of stablecoins as proof that the transition is already underway. Stablecoins transaction volumes have already surpassed Visa payments, he said, while pointing to Grayscale’s report that the $300 trillion stock market will eventually migrate to blockchain rails as tokenized assets.
“Networks that host a large portion of tokenized activity will capture economic value,” Lee said.
That shift could radically reshape the economics of finance itself, he argued. Lee compared JPMorgan, which is expected to earn about $60 billion this year with 300,000 employees, to companies like stablecoin issuer Tether. and retail giant Jane Street, which generates similar levels of profit with just a fraction of the workforce.
“Digital-native companies that use blockchain as a solution eliminate a lot of processes and people,” he said.
In Lee’s view, crypto-native financial companies could increasingly look like the internet companies that displaced legacy media and telecom giants over the past two decades.
“In 10 years, half of the world’s largest financial institutions will be digital native,” he said.
UPDATE (May 7, 17:01 UTC): Adds presentation slides cited by Tom Lee during his Consensus 2026 keynote.
