US Federal Reserve changes, inflation data and earnings dominate the week’s calendar, with markets weighing on bitcoin newfound strength in front of a packed macro whiteboard.
“The market is entering a phase where liquidity is becoming more selective rather than purely speculative,” Jake Seltzer, CEO of Quantix Finance, told CoinDesk in an emailed statement. “It is important that Bitcoin continues to strengthen at these levels because it is reinforcing confidence across the broader digital asset market, particularly among institutional allocators who were previously on the sidelines.”
This week we will see inflation data along with earnings from many crypto companies.
“In the near term, markets will continue to be driven by macroeconomic conditions, ETF flows and global liquidity, so volatility is expected,” Seltzer said. “But structurally, the industry feels much healthier than previous cycles.”
Seltzer said capital is starting to favor “real infrastructure, sustainable performance models and platforms with real risk management behind them, rather than only short-term narratives.”
That change will also put attention on infrastructure. Azul, an upgrade to the Base blockchain, is expected to go live on mainnet, Ronin will return to Ethereum, and several DAOs are voting on treasury, recovery, and MEV-related proposals as the ecosystem recovers from the biggest exploit of the year to date.
What to watch
(All times ET)
- Crypto
- May 11: The US Senate is expected to hold a procedural vote on Kevin Warsh’s nomination package to the Federal Reserve.
- May 13: Base Azul is expected to go live on the mainnet.
- May 14: US Senate Banking Committee markup scheduled for Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025.
- May 15 – Jerome Powell’s tenure as Federal Reserve Chairman officially ends; His term on the board continues until January 31, 2028.
- Macro
- May 12, 01:00 am: Germany’s final inflation rate for April YoY estimated 2.9% (previously 2.8%); Monthly estimate 0.5% (previous 1.2%)
- May 12, 05:30 am: India’s year-on-year inflation rate for April estimated at 3.8% (previously 3.4%); Monthly (previous 0.26%)
- May 12, 07:30 am: US monthly core CPI for April estimated 0.4% (previously 0.2%); YoY (previously 2.6%)
- May 12, 07:30 am: US monthly CPI for April estimated at 0.6% (previously 0.9%); YoY (previous 3.3%)
- May 13, 07:30 am: US monthly PPI for April estimated at 0.4% (previously 0.5%); YoY (previous 4.0%)
- May 13, 07:30 am: US monthly core PPI for April (previously 0.1%); YoY (previous 3.8%)
- May 14, 01:00 am: UK GDP Growth Rate Q1 Prel. QaT (previously 0.1%); YoY (previously 1.0%)
- May 14, 07:30 am: US Monthly Retail Sales for April (was 1.7%)
- May 14, 07:30 am: US initial unemployment claims for the period ending May 9 (previously 200K)
- (Previous 11)
- May 15, 08:15 am: US monthly industrial production for April (previous -0.5%)
- May 17, 9:00 p.m.: China industrial production year-on-year for April (up from 5.7%); Retail sales year-on-year (previously 1.7%); Investment in fixed assets YTD year-on-year (previously 1.7%); Unemployment rate (previously 5.4%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data when available)
- May 11: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market, –$0.45
- May 11: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, -$0.23
- May 11: Circle Internet Group (CRCL), pre-market, $0.17
- May 11: Exodus Movement (EXOD), post-market, $0.01
- May 11: Bakkt (BKKT), post-market, -$0.10
- May 11: Sharplink (SBT), pre-market, $0.01
- May 12: EToro Group (ETOR), pre-market, $0.69
- May 12: Coincheck Group (CNCK), aftermarket, -$0.01
- May 12: TON Strategy Company (TONX), premarket, -$1.42
- May 13: Bitgo Holdings (BTGO), post-market, -$0.01
- May 14: Bullish (BLSH), premarket, $0.16
- May 14: Rumble (RUM), post-market, -$0.09
- May 14: Gemini Space Station (GEMI), post-market, -$1.13
- May 14: Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR), pre-market, -$0.33
- May 14: Applied Materials (AMAT), post-market, $2.66
symbolic events
- Governance votes and calls
- 1inch DAO is voting to allocate $155,000 USDC for its public policy and regulatory advocacy program by 2026, funding trade group memberships and direct involvement of US lawmakers. Voting ends on May 11.
- Compound DAO is voting to contribute around 1,860 ETH to DeFi United’s rsETH recovery effort. The funds will come exclusively from the attacker’s recovered position in Compound rather than the broader treasury, ensuring that the DAO does not benefit from the exploit. Voting ends on May 11.
- Balancer DAO is voting to distribute a one-time airdrop of 500,000 USDC to veBAL holders as compensation for the discontinued incentives, replacing a planned six-month payment. Voting ends on May 12.
- GnosisDAO is voting to allow holders to burn GNO for a pro rata share of liquid treasury assets and a synthetic claim token for illiquid investments. Voting ends on May 12.
- QuickSwap DAO is voting to integrate the MEV-X Homelander plugin to capture receding MEV from its liquidity pools and redistribute the profits to the protocol and its liquidity providers. Voting ends on May 12.
- ShapeShift DAO is voting to formalize its Treasury Signer role as a $1,000 per month paid position on FOX and update the selection committee rules for privately appointing signers. Voting ends on May 13.
- Decentraland DAO is voting to remove catalyst node peer.kyllian.me following the removal of its owner from the Security Advisory Board. Voting ends on May 14.
- Unlock
- May 12 – Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock 0.31% of its circulating supply worth $16.55 million.
- May 15 – Connex (CONX) will unlock 1.49% of its circulating supply worth $17.99 million.
- May 16: Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 1.71% of its circulating supply worth $13.23 million.
- Token releases
- May 11-17: First full week of Pump.fun’s revised tokenomics.
- May 12: Ronin officially returns to Ethereum.
