Cryptoquant’s Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator turned green for the first time since 2023, which could indicate that “the market structure is starting to recover,” the firm’s onchain market analyst Julio Moreno said on Wednesday.
“Historically, this has been an important sign of regime change,” Moreno wrote. “When the indicator breaks out of the bearish territory and enters the early bullish zone, it often suggests that the worst phase of the correction has already passed and that the market structure is beginning to recover.”
For Mati Greenspan, former senior market analyst at eToro and founder of Quantum Economics, the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear market cycle indicator is a regime change indicator, not a crystal ball. He said that “historically, it has been most useful in identifying when Bitcoin stops behaving like a bear market asset.”
Greenspan said the real confirmation comes later, with sustained demand, liquidity and price acceptance at higher levels. “So now all eyes are on price action to confirm validation,” he added.
He recalled that when this indicator turned green in 2019 and again in early 2023 after intense bearish phases, the market moved into “stronger bullish trends.” Moreno, however, acknowledged that March 2022 remains a critical exception. Back then, the indicator turned bullish but returned a false positive, preceding a move into a deeper downtrend.
The analyst also highlighted why the current May 2026 is so crucial. “On the one hand, the indicator shows the first change in construction regime in years,” he said. “Bitcoin is no longer behaving like a deep bear market asset, and the recovery to the 30-day moving average suggests improving momentum beneath the surface.”
Bitcoin is currently in a tug-of-war similar to 2022. While on-chain metrics are recovering, the asset is struggling to decisively shift the $82,000 resistance level, a ceiling that has held firm despite multiple breakout attempts this month following a 35% bounce from February’s $60,000 lows.
To confirm this bullish signal, Bitcoin must overcome the “exhaustion” currently visible in secondary metrics, Moreno suggested. Unlike the clean early cycle entries of the past, this move clashes with a neutral Fear and Greed index and a complex macroeconomic context.
While Maelstrom Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes did not mention the CryptoQuant indicator, he echoed the sentiment that the cycle has turned, stating that he believes Bitcoin already found its bottom at $60,000 earlier this year. Hayes, who also co-founded the BitMEX exchange, noted that $90,000 was the level at which the rally would become explosive and head towards its previous high of $126,000.
Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam, concluded that while these indicators are useful, they are often misinterpreted. “Metrics like MVRV (market capitalization versus realized capitalization) or NUPL (net unrealized profits and losses) were never designed to be accurate trading signals,” he said. “They are best viewed as behavioral frameworks for understanding where Bitcoin sits within a broader liquidity cycle.”
