Prediction markets provider Polymarket on Wednesday filed the list of parlays in U.S. sporting event contracts, according to a self-certification filing with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Polymarket filed an application to list “combinatorial outcome contracts” on Wednesday, describing these event contracts (the official term for prediction markets) as a combination of two or more underlying contracts. Additionally, all underlying contracts would have to conform to the specific outcome set by the user.
“All outcomes must be met for the Contract to resolve at $1.00. The Contract resolves at $1.00 if and only if all tranches are satisfied. If any tranches are not met, the Contract resolves at $0.00, regardless of the outcomes of the remaining outstanding tranches,” the document says.
Because the contract is self-certified, Polymarket is not asking for explicit permission to list these contracts but rather is telling the CFTC that it intends to list these products. The document said it would include them “no earlier than May 21, 2026.”
Other evidence was presented, but Polymarket asked the CFTC to keep this evidence confidential due to potential trade secrets or commercial information, according to a second document.
Exchange Traded Funds
The Securities and Exchange Commission, which does not directly oversee prediction markets, is investigating what an exchange-traded fund (ETF) around prediction markets would look like, Chairman Paul Atkins said in a statement Wednesday.
ETFs drive capital formation and investor options, he said, noting that ETF assets have tripled in the last seven years.
“Novel products raise novel questions, and I appreciate the willingness fund sponsors have shown in delaying the effectiveness of a number of novel ETFs, including event contract ETFs, while we consider the implications,” he said. “To ensure we do this in a transparent and thoughtful manner, I have instructed staff to solicit public input on how the Commission should respond to recent market changes.”
Prediction markets have come under immense scrutiny in Congress and the courts in recent months, particularly as they have expanded to sports leagues. State regulators and gambling companies argue that sports-related prediction markets are infringing on states’ rights to regulate and tax gambling products, since prediction market providers are regulated at the federal level.
The CFTC, for its part, maintains that these products are properly supervised by it under the Commodity Exchange Act. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to take up the issue at some point.
Meanwhile, lawmakers are also reviewing prediction markets, although it’s unclear if a bill to address them will be introduced at this time.
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