The current state of the financial markets is best described as macrogeopolitics first and crypto second.
The evidence is clear. Despite recent positive regulatory developments related to the Clarity Act, bitcoin has shown little enthusiasm, trading near $77,200, virtually unchanged over the past 24 hours and over the week.
Meanwhile, oil remains elevated near $100 and speculative capital is investing in copper amid fears of a sulfur shortage. The connection? Copper production is heavily dependent on sulfuric acid, the supply of which has been disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz.
Essentially, it’s all about Hormuz, boosting commodity flows and prices, stoking inflation fears and raising bond yields, which reportedly weigh on cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, US stocks are hovering around all-time highs, boosted by AI optimism.
Bitcoin is not at the center of this geoeconomic and AI price review.
So it’s no surprise that US spot bitcoin ETFs continue to bleed, recording outflows of $1.15 billion this week, after $1 billion last week, according to SoSoValue. The Coinbase premium, a key indicator of US demand relative to the rest of the world, has hit monthly lows.
Analysts have repeatedly emphasized that these indicators need marked improvement before a sustained rebound can take hold. The question is whether that will happen as long as markets remain obsessed with geopolitics and artificial intelligence.
Meanwhile, certain corners of the cryptocurrency market, particularly on-chain perpetuals and quantum-resistant tokens, continue to show strength, driven by specific news and narratives, as we discussed on Thursday. Layer 1 blockchain token Near Protocol (NEAR) is the latest addition to that group, surging more than 25% in the last 24 hours following the announcement of a major upgrade focused on automated scaling and quantum resilience.
In traditional markets, Nasdaq futures have given up their early gains and are trading largely flat. Analysts remain generally bullish on stocks after the last earnings season. Stay alert.
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trend?
Today’s sign
HYPE’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surpassed 70. While readings above 70 are widely labeled as “overbought,” this interpretation is often misleading.
The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. A reading above 70 simply indicates strong bullish momentum and suggests that the uptrend may still have room to continue. It does not automatically mean that the asset is overvalued or due for an imminent reversal, as the popular narrative often implies.
In strongly trending markets, the RSI can remain elevated for extended periods without causing a significant pullback.
