LAHORE:
Rapid urbanization, shrinking green space and expanding concrete infrastructure have increased temperatures in Lahore over the past 25 years, according to a WWF-Pakistan analysis based on satellite data, raising concerns about public health, energy demand and climate resilience.
The study, which examined nighttime land surface temperature data from a NASA satellite between 2001 and 2025, found that urbanized areas of the city have warmed considerably faster than vegetated areas.
According to the results, vegetated areas, including parks, agricultural lands and green corridors, recorded a temperature increase of 2.16 degrees Celsius during the study period. In contrast, urbanized and unvegetated areas experienced an increase of 3.07 degrees, almost 42 percent faster than green spaces during the period.
The report notes that the temperature difference between green and built surfaces widened from 0.25°C in 2001 to 1.16°C last year, highlighting the growing impact of the urban heat island effect across the city.
The phenomenon is particularly evident at night, when concrete and asphalt surfaces continue to release heat accumulated during the day, preventing temperatures from dropping and reducing relief for residents, WWF-Pakistan said.
The analysis identified May as the most dangerous month for Lahore due to extreme pre-monsoon heat. In the most urbanized areas of the city, temperatures have increased by approximately 0.2°C annually during May, representing almost 5°C of additional nighttime heat in 25 years.
The study revealed that Lahore’s climate has undergone a marked change since the early 2000s. While summer temperatures peaked at between 42 and 43°C, recent years have seen more frequent and intense heat waves. The warming trend accelerated from an average increase of about 0.2°C per year during the first 15 years of the study period to almost 0.3°C per year over the last decade.
The urban heat island effect has also intensified: densely urbanized parts of Lahore now record temperatures eight to 10 degrees Celsius higher than surrounding rural areas during summer afternoons.
June has become a particularly critical month. According to the report, maximum temperatures that generally ranged between 44°C and 45°C in the early 2000s have consistently exceeded 48°C in recent years. The city recorded a record temperature of 50.1°C in June 2022.
Night temperatures have also increased markedly, with minimum temperatures rising from 28-29°C to 34-35°C during the period. The number of days each June with temperatures reaching or exceeding 45°C has increased from three to four a year in the early 2000s to more than 12 in recent years.
The report warns that prolonged periods of extreme heat, combined with warmer nights, pose serious health risks, especially for outdoor workers, older people, children and low-income households without access to cooling systems.
He added that rising temperatures are increasing demand for electricity for cooling, putting additional pressure on electrical infrastructure and contributing to heat generation in urban areas.
WWF-Pakistan highlighted that urban greening measures, including tree plantations, green roofs, public parks, roadside vegetation and protection of peri-urban agricultural lands, remain among the most cost-effective climate adaptation strategies available.
